Basketball · Turkiye BSL · 11/10, 14:30

Prediction: Anadolu Efes vs Merkezefendi Denizli

Team pages: Anadolu Efes · Merkezefendi Denizli

Prediction summary

Estimated points

170.6Total

Anadolu Efes90.9

Merkezefendi Denizli79.7

1X2

79% 21%

Anadolu Efes Merkezefendi Denizli

Recent form · 10 last

Anadolu Efes 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLWW

Merkezefendi Denizli 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Anadolu Efes 4–2 Merkezefendi Denizli (6 last)

Merkezefendi Denizli87-80Anadolu Efes
Anadolu Efes90-72Merkezefendi Denizli
Anadolu Efes97-100Merkezefendi Denizli
Merkezefendi Denizli63-96Anadolu Efes
Anadolu Efes83-77Merkezefendi Denizli
Merkezefendi Denizli64-79Anadolu Efes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Anadolu Efes 1608 · Merkezefendi Denizli 1503

	Anadolu Efes	Merkezefendi Denizli
Our model	75%	25%
Market	80%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 170.6 points · Bet365 line 170.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points170.6Anadolu Efes 90.9 · Merkezefendi Denizli 79.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Anadolu Efes (rating 1608 vs 1503).
Anadolu Efes is a clear favourite (79% market).
H2H favours Anadolu Efes: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Anadolu Efes	Merkezefendi Denizli
Points F\|A (Last 10)	87 / 79.8	86.6 / 85.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.4 / 85.6	90 / 84.4
Est. result	91	80

Est. total170.6

Line O/U170.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.15

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-10.5)1.83

2 (+10.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 170.51.83

Under 170.51.83

Diff.: 1.15 · Est. total: 169.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.15 → 1.15	Bet365 1.15
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	2
19:09 +3’	1.15	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Anadolu Efes 4–0–2 Merkezefendi Denizli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Turkiye BSL	Merkezefendi Denizli	87-80	Anadolu Efes
12/10/25 Turkiye BSL	Anadolu Efes	90-72	Merkezefendi Denizli
18/04/25 Turkiye BSL	Anadolu Efes	97-100	Merkezefendi Denizli
23/12/24 Turkiye BSL	Merkezefendi Denizli	63-96	Anadolu Efes
17/03/24 Turkiye BSL	Anadolu Efes	83-77	Merkezefendi Denizli
19/11/23 Turkiye BSL	Merkezefendi Denizli	64-79	Anadolu Efes

Standings · Turkiye BSL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bahcesehir Koleji	2	2	0	182	159	4
2	Anadolu Efes	2	2	0	180	160	4
3	Turk Telekom	2	2	0	151	141	4
4	Galatasaray	2	1	1	173	157	3
5	Merkezefendi Denizli	2	1	1	182	172	3
6	Korfez Basket	2	1	1	172	164	3
7	Pinar Karsiyaka	2	1	1	150	144	3
8	Esenler Erokspor	2	1	1	175	175	3
9	Trabzonspor	2	1	1	163	166	3
10	Petkim Spor	2	1	1	172	177	3
11	Besiktas	2	1	1	171	176	3
12	Tofas	2	1	1	177	190	3
13	Fenerbahce	2	1	1	168	182	3
14	Bordo Basketbol	2	0	2	168	175	2
15	Bursaspor	2	0	2	145	160	2
16	Cayirova	2	0	2	155	186	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Anadolu Efes	Merkezefendi Denizli
Fenerbahce	93-102 L	69-82 L
Turk Telekom	77-70 W	82-91 L
Buyukcekmece	113-79 W	98-87 W
Mersin BBGSK	88-86 W	101-93 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Anadolu Efes (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Anadolu Efes

WWWWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Bordo Basketbol Turkiye BSL	85-79	W
27/09	Besiktas Turkiye BSL	95-81	W
07/06	Fenerbahce Turkiye BSL	93-102	L
05/06	Fenerbahce Turkiye BSL	102-93	W
03/06	Fenerbahce Turkiye BSL	72-73	L
01/06	Fenerbahce Turkiye BSL	59-60	L
29/05	Turk Telekom Turkiye BSL	77-70	W
27/05	Turk Telekom Turkiye BSL	86-75	W
08/05	Buyukcekmece Turkiye BSL	113-79	W
02/05	Mersin BBGSK Turkiye BSL	88-86	W

Merkezefendi Denizli

WWLLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Tofas Turkiye BSL	101-87	W
26/09	Petkim Spor Turkiye BSL	81-85	L
10/05	Esenler Erokspor Turkiye BSL	69-70	L
03/05	Buyukcekmece Turkiye BSL	98-87	W
27/04	Mersin BBGSK Turkiye BSL	101-93	W
23/04	Galatasaray Turkiye BSL	80-90	L
18/04	Turk Telekom Turkiye BSL	82-91	L
04/04	Fenerbahce Turkiye BSL	69-82	L
28/03	Petkim Spor Turkiye BSL	92-80	W
21/03	Tofas Turkiye BSL	93-88	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Anadolu Efes vs Merkezefendi Denizli?

Our model gives 79% to Anadolu Efes.

How many points are expected in Anadolu Efes vs Merkezefendi Denizli?

The model estimates 170.6 total points (Anadolu Efes 90.9 · Merkezefendi Denizli 79.7).