Basketball · Lithuania NKL · 29/10, 18:00
Prediction: Kretinga vs Jurbarkas-Karys
Prediction summary
Estimated points
169.5Total
Kretinga81.3
Jurbarkas-Karys88.2
1X2
Kretinga
Jurbarkas-Karys
Recent form · 10 last
Kretinga
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Jurbarkas-Karys
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kretinga
0–6
Jurbarkas-Karys
(6 last)
- Kretinga77-88Jurbarkas-Karys
- Jurbarkas-Karys80-76Kretinga
- Kretinga65-81Jurbarkas-Karys
- Kretinga57-72Jurbarkas-Karys
- Jurbarkas-Karys87-86Kretinga
- Kretinga84-89Jurbarkas-Karys
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kretinga 1421 · Jurbarkas-Karys 1581
| Kretinga | Jurbarkas-Karys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
Estimated total (ours)
169.5 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · +3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points169.5Kretinga 81.3 · Jurbarkas-Karys 88.2
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jurbarkas-Karys (rating 1421 vs 1581).
- Jurbarkas-Karys is a clear favourite (69% market).
- H2H favours Jurbarkas-Karys: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Kretinga | Jurbarkas-Karys | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 79.7 / 88.8 | 88.6 / 80.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 83.4 / 90 | 87.4 / 72.6 |
| Est. result | 81 | 88 |
Est. total169.5
Line O/U166.5
Diff.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kretinga 0–0–6 Jurbarkas-Karys
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/26 Lithuania NKL | Kretinga | 77-88 | Jurbarkas-Karys |
| 18/12/25 Lithuania NKL | Jurbarkas-Karys | 80-76 | Kretinga |
| 16/10/25 Lithuania NKL | Kretinga | 65-81 | Jurbarkas-Karys |
| 05/01/25 Lithuania NKL | Kretinga | 57-72 | Jurbarkas-Karys |
| 05/10/24 Lithuania NKL | Jurbarkas-Karys | 87-86 | Kretinga |
| 28/04/24 Lithuania NKL | Kretinga | 84-89 | Jurbarkas-Karys |
Standings · Lithuania NKL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Telsiai | 8 | 8 | 0 | 691 | 561 | 0 |
| 2 | Jurbarkas-Karys | 7 | 7 | 0 | 635 | 509 | 0 |
| 3 | Vytis | 5 | 4 | 1 | 484 | 460 | 0 |
| 4 | Palangos Olimpas | 8 | 6 | 2 | 734 | 625 | 0 |
| 5 | Suduva Mantinga | 6 | 4 | 2 | 545 | 478 | 0 |
| 6 | Silute Silute | 6 | 4 | 2 | 491 | 461 | 0 |
| 7 | Plunges Olimpas | 8 | 5 | 3 | 666 | 649 | 0 |
| 8 | Omega-Tauras | 8 | 5 | 3 | 705 | 667 | 0 |
| 9 | Neptunas 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 634 | 611 | 0 |
| 10 | Zalgiris 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 775 | 766 | 0 |
| 11 | Alytaus Patriotai | 8 | 4 | 4 | 679 | 707 | 0 |
| 12 | Vilkaviskio Perlas | 7 | 3 | 4 | 586 | 599 | 0 |
| 13 | Kedainiu SC | 8 | 3 | 5 | 607 | 664 | 0 |
| 14 | Stekas | 8 | 3 | 5 | 661 | 720 | 0 |
| 15 | Kretinga | 8 | 1 | 7 | 643 | 723 | 0 |
| 16 | Mazeikiai | 8 | 1 | 7 | 583 | 668 | 0 |
| 17 | Rytas 2 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 588 | 698 | 0 |
| 18 | Atletas | 7 | 0 | 7 | 532 | 673 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kretinga | Jurbarkas-Karys |
|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris 2 | 85-101 L | 93-79 W |
| Alytaus Patriotai | 70-90 L | 96-68 W |
| Atletas | 84-72 W | 102-78 W |
| Suduva Mantinga | 83-88 L | 64-106 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Jurbarkas-Karys (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kretinga
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Zalgiris 2 Lithuania NKL |
85-101 | L |
| 22/10 | Alytaus Patriotai Lithuania NKL |
70-90 | L |
| 17/10 | Atletas Lithuania NKL |
84-72 | W |
| 15/10 | Suduva Mantinga Lithuania NKL |
83-88 | L |
| 10/10 | Stekas Lithuania NKL |
95-99 | L |
| 08/10 | Plunges Olimpas Lithuania NKL |
85-98 | L |
| 03/10 | Vilkaviskio Perlas Lithuania NKL |
65-84 | L |
| 01/10 | Neptunas 2 Lithuania NKL |
76-91 | L |
| 10/04 | Vytis Lithuania NKL |
85-90 | L |
| 08/04 | Vytis Lithuania NKL |
69-75 | L |
Jurbarkas-Karys
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Zalgiris 2 Lithuania NKL |
93-79 | W |
| 17/10 | Kedainiu SC Lithuania NKL |
81-72 | W |
| 15/10 | Rytas 2 Lithuania NKL |
84-72 | W |
| 10/10 | Mazeikiai Lithuania NKL |
91-62 | W |
| 08/10 | Palangos Olimpas Lithuania NKL |
88-78 | W |
| 03/10 | Atletas Lithuania NKL |
102-78 | W |
| 01/10 | Alytaus Patriotai Lithuania NKL |
96-68 | W |
| 07/04 | Suduva Mantinga Lithuania NKL |
64-106 | L |
| 03/04 | Suduva Mantinga Lithuania NKL |
82-94 | L |
| 01/04 | Suduva Mantinga Lithuania NKL |
105-98 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kretinga vs Jurbarkas-Karys?
Our model gives 69% to Jurbarkas-Karys.
How many points are expected in Kretinga vs Jurbarkas-Karys?
The model estimates 169.5 total points (Kretinga 81.3 · Jurbarkas-Karys 88.2).