Basketball · Philippines NCAA · 24/09, 09:00
Prediction: LPU Pirates vs SBC Red Lions
Team pages: LPU Pirates · SBC Red Lions
Prediction summary
Estimated points
153.1Total
LPU Pirates72.5
SBC Red Lions80.6
1X2
LPU Pirates
SBC Red Lions
Recent form · 10 last
LPU Pirates
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
SBC Red Lions
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
LPU Pirates
2–4
SBC Red Lions
(6 last)
- SBC Red Lions91-67LPU Pirates
- LPU Pirates78-66SBC Red Lions
- LPU Pirates64-62SBC Red Lions
- SBC Red Lions79-63LPU Pirates
- LPU Pirates66-76SBC Red Lions
- SBC Red Lions82-72LPU Pirates
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · LPU Pirates 1433 · SBC Red Lions 1521
| LPU Pirates | SBC Red Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
Estimated total (ours)
153.1 points · Bet365 line 153.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points153.1LPU Pirates 72.5 · SBC Red Lions 80.6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SBC Red Lions (rating 1433 vs 1521).
- SBC Red Lions is a clear favourite (72% market).
- H2H favours SBC Red Lions: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| LPU Pirates | SBC Red Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 72.6 / 77.3 | 84.3 / 77.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 72.8 / 82.2 | 79.8 / 75.2 |
| Est. result | 73 | 81 |
Est. total153.1
Line O/U153.5
Diff.0.4
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · LPU Pirates 2–0–4 SBC Red Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/25 Philippines NCAA | SBC Red Lions | 91-67 | LPU Pirates |
| 04/11/25 Philippines NCAA | LPU Pirates | 78-66 | SBC Red Lions |
| 15/10/24 Philippines NCAA | LPU Pirates | 64-62 | SBC Red Lions |
| 07/09/24 Philippines NCAA | SBC Red Lions | 79-63 | LPU Pirates |
| 17/05/24 Philippines Preseason Cup | LPU Pirates | 66-76 | SBC Red Lions |
| 01/12/23 Philippines NCAA | SBC Red Lions | 82-72 | LPU Pirates |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
LPU Pirates
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | MU Cardinals Philippines NCAA |
88-87 | W |
| 17/09 | CSB Blazers Philippines NCAA |
82-98 | L |
| 27/11 | SBC Red Lions Philippines NCAA |
67-91 | L |
| 25/11 | SSC-R Stags Philippines NCAA |
70-63 | W |
| 23/11 | Perpetual Altas Philippines NCAA |
57-72 | L |
| 19/11 | AU Chiefs Philippines NCAA |
56-74 | L |
| 15/11 | SSC-R Stags Philippines NCAA |
88-74 | W |
| 07/11 | MU Cardinals Philippines NCAA |
73-78 | L |
| 04/11 | SBC Red Lions Philippines NCAA |
78-66 | W |
| 28/10 | CSB Blazers Philippines NCAA |
67-70 | L |
SBC Red Lions
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | CSB Blazers Philippines NCAA |
68-77 | L |
| 13/12 | CSJL Knights Philippines NCAA |
83-71 | W |
| 10/12 | CSJL Knights Philippines NCAA |
89-70 | W |
| 07/12 | CSB Blazers Philippines NCAA |
84-81 | W |
| 05/12 | CSB Blazers Philippines NCAA |
75-77 | L |
| 02/12 | CSB Blazers Philippines NCAA |
91-72 | W |
| 27/11 | LPU Pirates Philippines NCAA |
91-67 | W |
| 23/11 | CSJL Knights Philippines NCAA |
83-87 | L |
| 23/11 | Letran Knights Philippines NCAA |
83-87 | L |
| 19/11 | EAC Generals Philippines NCAA |
96-82 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in LPU Pirates vs SBC Red Lions?
Our model gives 72% to SBC Red Lions.
How many points are expected in LPU Pirates vs SBC Red Lions?
The model estimates 153.1 total points (LPU Pirates 72.5 · SBC Red Lions 80.6).