Basketball · Greece Basket League · 10/10, 16:30
Prediction: Aris vs AEK
Prediction summary
Estimated points
166Total
Aris86.3
AEK79.7
1X2
Aris
AEK
Recent form · 10 last
Aris
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
AEK
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aris
2–4
AEK
(6 last)
- AEK102-99Aris
- Aris90-81AEK
- AEK87-81Aris
- Aris82-78AEK
- AEK82-76Aris
- AEK102-89Aris
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aris 1484 · AEK 1477
| Aris | AEK | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
166 points · Bet365 line 164.5 · +1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points166Aris 86.3 · AEK 79.7
Match keys
- Aris is a clear favourite (68% market).
- H2H favours AEK: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Aris | AEK | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 82.4 / 83.7 | 80.3 / 83.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 82.6 / 81.8 | 83.8 / 89.6 |
| Est. result | 86 | 80 |
Est. total166
Line O/U164.5
Diff.1.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aris 2–0–4 AEK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 Greece Basket League | AEK | 102-99 | Aris |
| 17/05/26 Greece Basket League | Aris | 90-81 | AEK |
| 14/05/26 Greece Basket League | AEK | 87-81 | Aris |
| 04/04/26 Greece Basket League | Aris | 82-78 | AEK |
| 27/12/25 Greece Basket League | AEK | 82-76 | Aris |
| 28/12/24 Greece Basket League | AEK | 102-89 | Aris |
Standings · Greece Basket League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 70 | 2 |
| 2 | Kolossos Rhodes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 75 | 2 |
| 3 | Peristeri | 1 | 1 | 0 | 94 | 88 | 2 |
| 4 | AS Karditsas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 68 | 2 |
| 5 | PAOK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 85 | 2 |
| 6 | AO Mykonou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 85 | 88 | 1 |
| 7 | Promitheas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 88 | 94 | 1 |
| 8 | Aris | 1 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 74 | 1 |
| 9 | Iraklis 2022 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 78 | 1 |
| 10 | Doxa Lefkadas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 75 | 91 | 1 |
| 11 | Marousi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70 | 91 | 1 |
| 12 | Vikos BC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 74 | 103 | 1 |
| 13 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 103 | 74 | 0 |
| 14 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 68 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aris | AEK |
|---|---|---|
| Panionios | 75-65 W | 71-57 W |
| Peristeri | 75-78 L | 64-74 L |
| Olympiacos | 81-92 L | 68-95 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Aris (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aris
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | AS Karditsas Greece Basket League |
68-74 | L |
| 25/05 | AEK Greece Basket League |
99-102 | L |
| 17/05 | AEK Greece Basket League |
90-81 | W |
| 14/05 | AEK Greece Basket League |
81-87 | L |
| 25/04 | Panionios Greece Basket League |
75-65 | W |
| 22/04 | Peristeri Greece Basket League |
75-78 | L |
| 19/04 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
81-92 | L |
| 15/04 | PAOK Greece Basket League |
77-88 | L |
| 04/04 | AEK Greece Basket League |
82-78 | W |
| 28/03 | Kolossos Rhodes Greece Basket League |
96-92 | W |
AEK
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Marousi Greece Basket League |
91-70 | W |
| 30/05 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
68-95 | L |
| 28/05 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
77-94 | L |
| 25/05 | Aris Greece Basket League |
102-99 | W |
| 17/05 | Aris Greece Basket League |
81-90 | L |
| 14/05 | Aris Greece Basket League |
87-81 | W |
| 25/04 | Olympiacos Greece Basket League |
84-94 | L |
| 19/04 | Panionios Greece Basket League |
71-57 | W |
| 04/04 | Aris Greece Basket League |
78-82 | L |
| 28/03 | Peristeri Greece Basket League |
64-74 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aris vs AEK?
Our model gives 68% to Aris.
How many points are expected in Aris vs AEK?
The model estimates 166 total points (Aris 86.3 · AEK 79.7).