Basketball · Slovenia SKL · 07/10, 18:00
Prediction: Ilirija vs Krka
Prediction summary
Estimated points
161.6Total
Ilirija81.3
Krka80.3
1X2
Even — no clear favourite
Ilirija
Krka
The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.
Recent form · 10 last
Ilirija
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Krka
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ilirija
1–5
Krka
(6 last)
- Krka97-74Ilirija
- Ilirija105-89Krka
- Krka94-80Ilirija
- Krka83-68Ilirija
- Ilirija77-83Krka
- Krka72-71Ilirija
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilirija 1525 · Krka 1521
| Ilirija | Krka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
161.6 points · Bet365 line 156.5 · +5.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points161.6Ilirija 81.3 · Krka 80.3
Match keys
- H2H favours Krka: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Ilirija | Krka | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.6 / 82 | 85.8 / 78.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 86.8 / 83.6 | 79.6 / 76.8 |
| Est. result | 81 | 80 |
Est. total161.6
Line O/U156.5
Diff.5.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilirija 1–0–5 Krka
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Slovenia SKL | Krka | 97-74 | Ilirija |
| 21/05/26 Slovenia SKL | Ilirija | 105-89 | Krka |
| 18/05/26 Slovenia SKL | Krka | 94-80 | Ilirija |
| 03/05/26 Slovenia SKL | Krka | 83-68 | Ilirija |
| 29/03/26 Adriatic League | Ilirija | 77-83 | Krka |
| 07/03/26 Adriatic League | Krka | 72-71 | Ilirija |
Standings · Slovenia SKL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hopsi Polzela | 2 | 2 | 0 | 161 | 108 | 4 |
| 2 | Krka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 116 | 4 |
| 3 | KK Sencur | 2 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 149 | 4 |
| 4 | Ilirija | 2 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 138 | 4 |
| 5 | Nova Gorica Mladi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 147 | 155 | 3 |
| 6 | Zlatorog Lasko | 2 | 1 | 1 | 133 | 146 | 3 |
| 7 | Triglav | 2 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 161 | 2 |
| 8 | Helios Domzale | 2 | 0 | 2 | 128 | 162 | 2 |
| 9 | Rogaska | 2 | 0 | 2 | 124 | 179 | 2 |
| 10 | Tajfun Sentjur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 129 | 186 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilirija
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Triglav Slovenia SKL |
89-79 | W |
| 23/09 | Nova Gorica Slovenia SKL |
86-59 | W |
| 23/05 | Krka Slovenia SKL |
74-97 | L |
| 21/05 | Krka Slovenia SKL |
105-89 | W |
| 18/05 | Krka Slovenia SKL |
80-94 | L |
| 13/05 | Triglav Slovenia SKL |
72-65 | W |
| 11/05 | Triglav Slovenia SKL |
86-70 | W |
| 08/05 | Triglav Slovenia SKL |
84-85 | L |
| 03/05 | Krka Slovenia SKL |
68-83 | L |
| 30/04 | KK Sencur Slovenia SKL |
102-99 | W |
Krka
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Zlatorog Lasko Slovenia SKL |
77-61 | W |
| 22/09 | Tajfun Sentjur Slovenia SKL |
87-55 | W |
| 01/06 | Cedevita Olimpija Slovenia SKL |
71-87 | L |
| 30/05 | Cedevita Olimpija Slovenia SKL |
74-91 | L |
| 27/05 | Cedevita Olimpija Slovenia SKL |
89-90 | L |
| 23/05 | Ilirija Slovenia SKL |
97-74 | W |
| 21/05 | Ilirija Slovenia SKL |
89-105 | L |
| 18/05 | Ilirija Slovenia SKL |
94-80 | W |
| 10/05 | Hopsi Polzela Slovenia SKL |
86-80 | W |
| 07/05 | Hopsi Polzela Slovenia SKL |
94-58 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilirija vs Krka?
Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Ilirija 53% · Krka 47%).
How many points are expected in Ilirija vs Krka?
The model estimates 161.6 total points (Ilirija 81.3 · Krka 80.3).