Basketball · Croatia A1 Liga · 23/10, 19:00

Prediction: Zadar vs Dinamo Zagreb

Team pages: Zadar · Dinamo Zagreb

Prediction summary

Estimated points

158.9Total

Zadar88

Dinamo Zagreb70.9

1X2

89% 11%

Zadar Dinamo Zagreb

Recent form · 10 last

Zadar 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWWWW

Dinamo Zagreb 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Zadar 6–0 Dinamo Zagreb (6 last)

Zadar99-79Dinamo Zagreb
Zadar78-66Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb71-107Zadar
Zadar82-72Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb78-100Zadar
Zadar98-71Dinamo Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zadar 1650 · Dinamo Zagreb 1448

	Zadar	Dinamo Zagreb
Our model	84%	16%
Market	90%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 158.9 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points158.9Zadar 88 · Dinamo Zagreb 70.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zadar (rating 1650 vs 1448).
Zadar is a clear favourite (89% market).
H2H favours Zadar: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Zadar	Dinamo Zagreb
Points F\|A (Last 10)	83.3 / 68.1	84.6 / 84.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	86.8 / 67.8	83 / 81.4
Est. result	88	71

Est. total158.9

Line O/U159.5

Diff.0.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.03

29.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-17.5)1.83

2 (+17.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 159.51.83

Under 159.51.83

Diff.: 0.9 · Est. total: 160.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
2	9.75 → 9.75	Bet365 9.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 8.7%

Time*	1	2
14:05 +41’	1.03	9.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
19:50	1.03	8.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zadar 6–0–0 Dinamo Zagreb

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Croatia A1 Liga	Zadar	99-79	Dinamo Zagreb
18/02/26 Croatia Cup	Zadar	78-66	Dinamo Zagreb
24/01/26 Croatia A1 Liga	Dinamo Zagreb	71-107	Zadar
09/11/25 Croatia A1 Liga	Zadar	82-72	Dinamo Zagreb
13/04/25 Croatia A1 Liga	Dinamo Zagreb	78-100	Zadar
06/02/25 Croatia A1 Liga	Zadar	98-71	Dinamo Zagreb

Standings · Croatia A1 Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zadar	4	4	0	359	257	8
2	Cibona	4	4	0	353	315	8
3	Split	4	3	1	334	285	7
4	Dinamo Zagreb	4	3	1	314	325	7
5	Cedevita Junior	4	3	1	324	342	7
6	Kvarner 2010	4	2	2	357	326	6
7	Skrljevo	4	2	2	327	348	6
8	KK Dubrovnik	4	1	3	324	345	5
9	Zabok	4	1	3	320	344	5
10	Alkar	4	1	3	324	346	5
11	Samobor	4	0	4	286	328	4
12	Furnir Dubrava	4	0	4	280	341	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zadar	Dinamo Zagreb
Split	84-73 W	89-96 L
Samobor	81-59 W	91-110 L
KK Dubrovnik	81-68 W	94-85 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zadar (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zadar

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Split Croatia A1 Liga	84-73	W
12/10	Cedevita Junior Croatia A1 Liga	87-56	W
02/10	Skrljevo Croatia A1 Liga	107-69	W
27/09	Samobor Croatia A1 Liga	81-59	W
10/06	Cibona Croatia A1 Liga	75-82	L
07/06	Cibona Croatia A1 Liga	67-73	L
05/06	Cibona Croatia A1 Liga	87-70	W
02/06	Cibona Croatia A1 Liga	92-57	W
31/05	Cibona Croatia A1 Liga	72-74	L
25/05	KK Dubrovnik Croatia A1 Liga	81-68	W

Dinamo Zagreb

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Furnir Dubrava Croatia A1 Liga	85-62	W
11/10	Kvarner 2010 Croatia A1 Liga	55-100	L
03/10	KK Dubrovnik Croatia A1 Liga	94-85	W
26/09	Zabok Croatia A1 Liga	80-78	W
20/05	Ribola Kastela Croatia A1 Liga	101-82	W
16/05	Ribola Kastela Croatia A1 Liga	97-61	W
09/05	Samobor Croatia A1 Liga	91-110	L
03/05	KK Dubrovnik Croatia A1 Liga	82-97	L
29/04	Split Croatia A1 Liga	89-96	L
25/04	Alkar Croatia A1 Liga	72-77	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zadar vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Our model gives 89% to Zadar.

How many points are expected in Zadar vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model estimates 158.9 total points (Zadar 88 · Dinamo Zagreb 70.9).