Basketball · Croatia A1 Liga · 27/09, 18:00
Prediction: Alkar vs Cibona
Prediction summary
Estimated points
151.9Total
Alkar69.8
Cibona82.1
1X2
Alkar
Cibona
Recent form · 10 last
Alkar
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Cibona
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alkar
2–4
Cibona
(6 last)
- Alkar65-70Cibona
- Cibona92-67Alkar
- Alkar66-73Cibona
- Cibona85-90Alkar
- Alkar88-85Cibona
- Cibona84-75Alkar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alkar 1442 · Cibona 1650
| Alkar | Cibona | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
Estimated total (ours)
151.9 points · Bet365 line 154.5 · -2.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points151.9Alkar 69.8 · Cibona 82.1
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cibona (rating 1442 vs 1650).
- Cibona is a clear favourite (81% market).
- H2H favours Cibona: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Alkar | Cibona | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 70.9 / 79.2 | 77.2 / 80.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 76.2 / 80.8 | 71.2 / 78.6 |
| Est. result | 70 | 82 |
Est. total151.9
Line O/U154.5
Diff.2.6
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alkar 2–0–4 Cibona
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Croatia A1 Liga | Alkar | 65-70 | Cibona |
| 02/02/26 Croatia A1 Liga | Cibona | 92-67 | Alkar |
| 15/11/25 Croatia A1 Liga | Alkar | 66-73 | Cibona |
| 10/05/25 Croatia A1 Liga | Cibona | 85-90 | Alkar |
| 17/01/25 Croatia A1 Liga | Alkar | 88-85 | Cibona |
| 30/10/24 Croatia A1 Liga | Cibona | 84-75 | Alkar |
Standings · Croatia A1 Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alkar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cedevita Junior | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cibona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Furnir Dubrava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KK Dubrovnik | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kvarner 2010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Samobor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Skrljevo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zabok | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zadar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alkar | Cibona |
|---|---|---|
| Furnir Dubrava | 69-85 L | 92-87 W |
| Zadar | 58-69 L | 82-75 W |
| Split | 64-80 L | 78-76 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Cibona (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alkar
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05 | KK Dubrovnik Croatia A1 Liga |
70-87 | L |
| 01/05 | GKK Sibenik Croatia A1 Liga |
88-91 | L |
| 25/04 | Dinamo Zagreb Croatia A1 Liga |
77-72 | W |
| 19/04 | Furnir Dubrava Croatia A1 Liga |
69-85 | L |
| 15/04 | Kvarner 2010 Croatia A1 Liga |
77-69 | W |
| 11/04 | Cedevita Junior Croatia A1 Liga |
62-80 | L |
| 04/04 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
58-69 | L |
| 29/03 | Split Croatia A1 Liga |
64-80 | L |
| 21/03 | Cibona Croatia A1 Liga |
65-70 | L |
| 18/03 | Zabok Croatia A1 Liga |
79-89 | L |
Cibona
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
82-75 | W |
| 07/06 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
73-67 | W |
| 05/06 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
70-87 | L |
| 02/06 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
57-92 | L |
| 31/05 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
74-72 | W |
| 28/05 | Split Croatia A1 Liga |
78-76 | W |
| 25/05 | Split Croatia A1 Liga |
78-83 | L |
| 22/05 | Split Croatia A1 Liga |
84-79 | W |
| 19/05 | Furnir Dubrava Croatia A1 Liga |
92-87 | W |
| 16/05 | Furnir Dubrava Croatia A1 Liga |
84-86 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alkar vs Cibona?
Our model gives 81% to Cibona.
How many points are expected in Alkar vs Cibona?
The model estimates 151.9 total points (Alkar 69.8 · Cibona 82.1).