Basketball · Croatia A1 Liga · 04/10, 18:00
Prediction: Samobor vs Alkar
Prediction summary
Estimated points
156.5Total
Samobor81.3
Alkar75.2
1X2
Samobor
Alkar
Recent form · 10 last
Samobor
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Alkar
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Samobor
1–2
Alkar
(3 last)
- Alkar69-65Samobor
- Samobor71-77Alkar
- Alkar76-79Samobor
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Samobor 1459 · Alkar 1469
| Samobor | Alkar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
156.5 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · -3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points156.5Samobor 81.3 · Alkar 75.2
Match keys
- Samobor is a clear favourite (67% market).
- H2H favours Alkar: 2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Samobor | Alkar | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 81 / 84.1 | 70.8 / 78.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 79 / 80.2 | 76.4 / 83.8 |
| Est. result | 81 | 75 |
Est. total156.5
Line O/U159.5
Diff.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Samobor 1–0–2 Alkar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Croatia A1 Liga | Alkar | 69-65 | Samobor |
| 25/01/26 Croatia A1 Liga | Samobor | 71-77 | Alkar |
| 09/11/25 Croatia A1 Liga | Alkar | 76-79 | Samobor |
Standings · Croatia A1 Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zadar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 128 | 4 |
| 2 | Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 139 | 4 |
| 3 | Cibona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 162 | 4 |
| 4 | Cedevita Junior | 2 | 2 | 0 | 185 | 177 | 4 |
| 5 | Skrljevo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 150 | 179 | 3 |
| 6 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 78 | 2 |
| 7 | Zabok | 2 | 0 | 2 | 162 | 180 | 2 |
| 8 | Furnir Dubrava | 2 | 0 | 2 | 156 | 170 | 2 |
| 9 | Kvarner 2010 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 166 | 190 | 2 |
| 10 | Alkar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 78 | 84 | 1 |
| 11 | KK Dubrovnik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 66 | 81 | 1 |
| 12 | Samobor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 81 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Samobor | Alkar |
|---|---|---|
| Zadar | 59-81 L | 58-69 L |
| KK Dubrovnik | 69-77 L | 70-87 L |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 110-91 W | 77-72 W |
| Furnir Dubrava | 76-66 W | 69-85 L |
| Kvarner 2010 | 92-81 W | 77-69 W |
| Cedevita Junior | 75-88 L | 62-80 L |
| Split | 81-94 L | 64-80 L |
| Cibona | 83-89 L | 78-84 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 5 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Samobor (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Samobor
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
59-81 | L |
| 16/05 | KK Dubrovnik Croatia A1 Liga |
69-77 | L |
| 13/05 | KK Dubrovnik Croatia A1 Liga |
81-86 | L |
| 09/05 | Dinamo Zagreb Croatia A1 Liga |
110-91 | W |
| 02/05 | Furnir Dubrava Croatia A1 Liga |
76-66 | W |
| 29/04 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
84-88 | L |
| 24/04 | Kvarner 2010 Croatia A1 Liga |
92-81 | W |
| 19/04 | Cedevita Junior Croatia A1 Liga |
75-88 | L |
| 12/04 | Split Croatia A1 Liga |
81-94 | L |
| 03/04 | Cibona Croatia A1 Liga |
83-89 | L |
Alkar
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Cibona Croatia A1 Liga |
78-84 | L |
| 09/05 | KK Dubrovnik Croatia A1 Liga |
70-87 | L |
| 01/05 | GKK Sibenik Croatia A1 Liga |
88-91 | L |
| 25/04 | Dinamo Zagreb Croatia A1 Liga |
77-72 | W |
| 19/04 | Furnir Dubrava Croatia A1 Liga |
69-85 | L |
| 15/04 | Kvarner 2010 Croatia A1 Liga |
77-69 | W |
| 11/04 | Cedevita Junior Croatia A1 Liga |
62-80 | L |
| 04/04 | Zadar Croatia A1 Liga |
58-69 | L |
| 29/03 | Split Croatia A1 Liga |
64-80 | L |
| 21/03 | Cibona Croatia A1 Liga |
65-70 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Samobor vs Alkar?
Our model gives 67% to Samobor.
How many points are expected in Samobor vs Alkar?
The model estimates 156.5 total points (Samobor 81.3 · Alkar 75.2).