Basketball · Korea KBL · 15/10, 12:00

Prediction: Seoul Thunders vs Changwon Sakers

Team pages: Seoul Thunders · Changwon Sakers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

158.2Total

Seoul Thunders78.9

Changwon Sakers79.3

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

49% 51%

Seoul Thunders Changwon Sakers

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Seoul Thunders 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWWW

Changwon Sakers 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Seoul Thunders 0–6 Changwon Sakers (6 last)

Changwon Sakers97-88Seoul Thunders
Seoul Thunders79-107Changwon Sakers
Changwon Sakers83-70Seoul Thunders
Seoul Thunders62-80Changwon Sakers
Seoul Thunders83-95Changwon Sakers
Changwon Sakers75-64Seoul Thunders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seoul Thunders 1457 · Changwon Sakers 1513

	Seoul Thunders	Changwon Sakers
Our model	55%	45%
Market	47%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 158.2 points · Bet365 line 160.5 · -2.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points158.2Seoul Thunders 78.9 · Changwon Sakers 79.3

Match keys

H2H favours Changwon Sakers: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Seoul Thunders	Changwon Sakers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	77.6 / 76.8	76.3 / 80.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	79 / 74	83.2 / 87
Est. result	79	79

Est. total158.2

Line O/U160.5

Diff.2.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.95

21.74

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.83

2 (-1.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 160.51.83

Under 160.51.83

Diff.: 5.1 · Est. total: 155.4

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 22:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.09 ★
2	2.15 → 1.74▼	Bet365 1.74

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	2
14:23 +23’	1.63	2.15
16:44 +2’	1.74▲	1.95▼
17:33 +13’	1.63▼	2.15▲
18:44 +2’	1.74▲	1.95▼
22:20 +26’	1.95▲	1.74▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:42 +5’	2.01	1.79
15:51 +56’	2.04▲	1.77▼
18:17 +28’	2.02▼	1.78▲
18:56 +50’	2.00▼	1.80▲
20:22 +25’	2.05▲	1.76▼
23:23 +22’	2.09▲	1.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Seoul Thunders 0–0–6 Changwon Sakers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Korea KBL	Changwon Sakers	97-88	Seoul Thunders
05/02/26 Korea KBL	Seoul Thunders	79-107	Changwon Sakers
07/01/26 Korea KBL	Changwon Sakers	83-70	Seoul Thunders
02/01/26 Korea KBL	Seoul Thunders	62-80	Changwon Sakers
12/11/25 Korea KBL	Seoul Thunders	83-95	Changwon Sakers
18/10/25 Korea KBL	Changwon Sakers	75-64	Seoul Thunders

Standings · Korea KBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Seoul Thunders	3	3	0	229	215
2	Anyang Red Boosters	5	4	1	405	377
3	Suwon Sonicboom	5	3	2	417	395
4	Changwon Sakers	4	2	2	336	345
4	Wonju Promy	4	2	2	361	360
6	Korea Gas Corporation	5	2	3	414	415
6	KCC Egis	5	2	3	428	460
8	Mobis Phoebus	4	1	3	346	355
9	Goyang Sky Gunners	5	1	4	409	423
10	Seoul Knights	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seoul Thunders	Changwon Sakers
Goyang Sky Gunners	82-81 W	80-90 L
Anyang Red Boosters	66-58 W	65-88 L
Suwon Sonicboom	81-76 W	72-97 L
Wonju Promy	75-80 L	96-92 W
Mobis Phoebus	76-73 W	56-78 L
KCC Egis	81-100 L	103-68 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Seoul Thunders (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seoul Thunders

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Goyang Sky Gunners Korea KBL	82-81	W
09/10	Anyang Red Boosters Korea KBL	66-58	W
04/10	Suwon Sonicboom Korea KBL	81-76	W
08/04	Korea Gas Corporation Korea KBL	73-80	L
06/04	Seoul Knights Korea KBL	93-75	W
04/04	Wonju Promy Korea KBL	75-80	L
29/03	Suwon Sonicboom Korea KBL	78-83	L
28/03	Anyang Red Boosters Korea KBL	71-62	W
23/03	Mobis Phoebus Korea KBL	76-73	W
21/03	KCC Egis Korea KBL	81-100	L

Changwon Sakers

WLLLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Anyang Red Boosters Korea KBL	65-88	L
08/10	Wonju Promy Korea KBL	96-92	W
06/10	Suwon Sonicboom Korea KBL	72-97	L
03/10	KCC Egis Korea KBL	103-68	W
27/04	Goyang Sky Gunners Korea KBL	80-90	L
25/04	Goyang Sky Gunners Korea KBL	76-85	L
23/04	Goyang Sky Gunners Korea KBL	63-69	L
08/04	Mobis Phoebus Korea KBL	56-78	L
05/04	KCC Egis Korea KBL	65-74	L
03/04	Suwon Sonicboom Korea KBL	87-60	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seoul Thunders vs Changwon Sakers?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Seoul Thunders 49% · Changwon Sakers 51%).

How many points are expected in Seoul Thunders vs Changwon Sakers?

The model estimates 158.2 total points (Seoul Thunders 78.9 · Changwon Sakers 79.3).