Basketball · Lithuania LKL · 10/10, 18:10
Prediction: Lietkabelis vs Jonava
Team pages: Lietkabelis · Jonava
Prediction summary
Estimated points
165.5Total
Lietkabelis87.7
Jonava77.8
1X2
Lietkabelis
Jonava
Markets
Under 166.5 points 70%
Recent form · 10 last
Lietkabelis
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Jonava
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lietkabelis
5–1
Jonava
(6 last)
- Jonava69-67Lietkabelis
- Lietkabelis91-80Jonava
- Jonava85-96Lietkabelis
- Lietkabelis101-74Jonava
- Jonava73-81Lietkabelis
- Lietkabelis92-78Jonava
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lietkabelis 1476 · Jonava 1424
| Lietkabelis | Jonava | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
165.5 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · -1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points165.5Lietkabelis 87.7 · Jonava 77.8
Over / Under 166.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~160.2 pts · strength 6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lietkabelis (rating 1476 vs 1424).
- Lietkabelis is a clear favourite (76% market).
- H2H favours Lietkabelis: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Lietkabelis | Jonava | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 78 / 85.3 | 83.8 / 86.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 79.2 / 87 | 79 / 86.2 |
| Est. result | 88 | 78 |
Est. total165.5
Line O/U166.5
Diff.1
Over / Under30% / 70%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietkabelis 5–0–1 Jonava
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 Lithuania LKL | Jonava | 69-67 | Lietkabelis |
| 15/03/26 Lithuania LKL | Lietkabelis | 91-80 | Jonava |
| 16/11/25 Lithuania LKL | Jonava | 85-96 | Lietkabelis |
| 23/09/25 Lithuania LKL | Lietkabelis | 101-74 | Jonava |
| 18/06/25 Lithuania LKL | Jonava | 73-81 | Lietkabelis |
| 16/06/25 Lithuania LKL | Lietkabelis | 92-78 | Jonava |
Standings · Lithuania LKL
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zalgiris | 4 | 4 | 0 | 389 | 296 | 0 |
| 2 | Gargzdu Gargzdai SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 359 | 357 | 0 |
| 3 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | 2 | 353 | 337 | 0 |
| 4 | Neptunas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 335 | 326 | 0 |
| 5 | Siauliai | 4 | 2 | 2 | 326 | 331 | 0 |
| 6 | Lietkabelis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 314 | 344 | 0 |
| 7 | Jonava | 3 | 1 | 2 | 238 | 239 | 0 |
| 8 | Taurage | 3 | 1 | 2 | 251 | 268 | 0 |
| 9 | Rytas Vilnius | 1 | 0 | 1 | 102 | 105 | 0 |
| 10 | Nevezis | 3 | 0 | 3 | 204 | 268 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lietkabelis | Jonava |
|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris | 68-97 L | 75-90 L |
| Siauliai | 77-86 L | 63-79 L |
| Juventus | 84-82 W | 90-95 L |
| Neptunas | 82-91 L | 89-95 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lietkabelis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Zalgiris Lithuania LKL |
68-97 | L |
| 26/09 | Taurage Lithuania LKL |
85-79 | W |
| 23/09 | Siauliai Lithuania LKL |
77-86 | L |
| 19/09 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
84-82 | W |
| 13/06 | Neptunas Lithuania LKL |
82-91 | L |
| 11/06 | Neptunas Lithuania LKL |
63-66 | L |
| 08/06 | Neptunas Lithuania LKL |
80-68 | W |
| 06/06 | Neptunas Lithuania LKL |
73-86 | L |
| 31/05 | Zalgiris Lithuania LKL |
93-103 | L |
| 28/05 | Zalgiris Lithuania LKL |
75-95 | L |
Jonava
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Siauliai Lithuania LKL |
63-79 | L |
| 22/09 | Nevezis Lithuania LKL |
85-65 | W |
| 19/09 | Taurages Taurage Lithuania LKL |
90-95 | L |
| 22/05 | Zalgiris Lithuania LKL |
75-90 | L |
| 20/05 | Zalgiris Lithuania LKL |
82-102 | L |
| 17/05 | Neptunas Lithuania LKL |
89-95 | L |
| 12/05 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
90-95 | L |
| 09/05 | Siauliai Lithuania LKL |
86-70 | W |
| 02/05 | Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL |
109-104 | W |
| 29/04 | Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL |
69-67 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lietkabelis vs Jonava?
Our model gives 76% to Lietkabelis.
How many points are expected in Lietkabelis vs Jonava?
The model estimates 165.5 total points (Lietkabelis 87.7 · Jonava 77.8).
Over or under 166.5 points?
Recent history points to under 166.5 points (70%).