Basketball · Lithuania LKL · 10/10, 15:50
Prediction: Rytas Vilnius vs Neptunas
Team pages: Rytas Vilnius · Neptunas
Prediction summary
Estimated points
179.6Total
Rytas Vilnius94.1
Neptunas85.5
1X2
Rytas Vilnius
Neptunas
Recent form · 10 last
Rytas Vilnius
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Neptunas
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rytas Vilnius
4–2
Neptunas
(6 last)
- Neptunas91-98Rytas Vilnius
- Rytas Vilnius100-95Neptunas
- Neptunas95-87Rytas Vilnius
- Rytas Vilnius97-93Neptunas
- Rytas Vilnius103-85Neptunas
- Neptunas92-85Rytas Vilnius
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rytas Vilnius 1541 · Neptunas 1486
| Rytas Vilnius | Neptunas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
179.6 points · Bet365 line 177.5 · +2.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points179.6Rytas Vilnius 94.1 · Neptunas 85.5
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rytas Vilnius (rating 1541 vs 1486).
- Rytas Vilnius is a clear favourite (73% market).
- H2H favours Rytas Vilnius: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Rytas Vilnius | Neptunas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 96.7 / 90.9 | 83.8 / 81.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 99.2 / 97.8 | 85.2 / 81.6 |
| Est. result | 94 | 86 |
Est. total179.6
Line O/U177.5
Diff.2.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rytas Vilnius 4–0–2 Neptunas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 Lithuania LKL | Neptunas | 91-98 | Rytas Vilnius |
| 14/02/26 Lithuania LKL | Rytas Vilnius | 100-95 | Neptunas |
| 31/01/26 Lithuania LKL | Neptunas | 95-87 | Rytas Vilnius |
| 18/10/25 Lithuania LKL | Rytas Vilnius | 97-93 | Neptunas |
| 24/04/25 Lithuania LKL | Rytas Vilnius | 103-85 | Neptunas |
| 12/04/25 Lithuania LKL | Neptunas | 92-85 | Rytas Vilnius |
Standings · Lithuania LKL
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zalgiris | 4 | 4 | 0 | 389 | 296 | 0 |
| 2 | Gargzdu Gargzdai SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 359 | 357 | 0 |
| 3 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | 2 | 353 | 337 | 0 |
| 4 | Neptunas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 335 | 326 | 0 |
| 5 | Siauliai | 4 | 2 | 2 | 326 | 331 | 0 |
| 6 | Lietkabelis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 314 | 344 | 0 |
| 7 | Jonava | 3 | 1 | 2 | 238 | 239 | 0 |
| 8 | Taurage | 3 | 1 | 2 | 251 | 268 | 0 |
| 9 | Rytas Vilnius | 1 | 0 | 1 | 102 | 105 | 0 |
| 10 | Nevezis | 3 | 0 | 3 | 204 | 268 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rytas Vilnius | Neptunas |
|---|---|---|
| Gargzdu Gargzdai SC | 102-105 L | 78-87 L |
| Juventus | 95-101 L | 99-84 W |
| Nevezis | 117-88 W | 89-62 W |
| Lietkabelis | 71-96 L | 91-82 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rytas Vilnius
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL |
102-105 | L |
| 23/05 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
95-101 | L |
| 21/05 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
84-92 | L |
| 16/05 | Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL |
98-103 | L |
| 13/05 | Nevezis Lithuania LKL |
117-88 | W |
| 03/05 | Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL |
71-96 | L |
| 29/04 | Neptunas Lithuania LKL |
98-91 | W |
| 27/04 | Siauliai Lithuania LKL |
102-72 | W |
| 25/04 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
102-80 | W |
| 22/04 | Jonava Lithuania LKL |
98-81 | W |
Neptunas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Nevezis Lithuania LKL |
89-62 | W |
| 26/09 | Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL |
78-87 | L |
| 23/09 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
99-84 | W |
| 20/09 | Zalgiris Lithuania LKL |
69-93 | L |
| 13/06 | Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL |
91-82 | W |
| 11/06 | Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL |
66-63 | W |
| 08/06 | Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL |
68-80 | L |
| 06/06 | Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL |
86-73 | W |
| 03/06 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
90-103 | L |
| 01/06 | Juventus Lithuania LKL |
102-84 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rytas Vilnius vs Neptunas?
Our model gives 73% to Rytas Vilnius.
How many points are expected in Rytas Vilnius vs Neptunas?
The model estimates 179.6 total points (Rytas Vilnius 94.1 · Neptunas 85.5).