Basketball · Lithuania LKL · 02/11, 15:50

Prediction: Rytas Vilnius vs Zalgiris

Team pages: Rytas Vilnius · Zalgiris

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.1Total

Rytas Vilnius81.4

Zalgiris90.8

1X2

25% 75%

Rytas Vilnius Zalgiris

Recent form · 10 last

Rytas Vilnius 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWWWW

Zalgiris 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Rytas Vilnius 0–6 Zalgiris (6 last)

Rytas Vilnius70-75Zalgiris
Zalgiris98-81Rytas Vilnius
Zalgiris101-85Rytas Vilnius
Rytas Vilnius81-90Zalgiris
Zalgiris79-75Rytas Vilnius
Zalgiris76-69Rytas Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rytas Vilnius 1504 · Zalgiris 1678

	Rytas Vilnius	Zalgiris
Our model	38%	62%
Market	22%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 172.1 points · Bet365 line 171.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.1Rytas Vilnius 81.4 · Zalgiris 90.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zalgiris (rating 1504 vs 1678).
Zalgiris is a clear favourite (75% market).
H2H favours Zalgiris: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Rytas Vilnius	Zalgiris
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.1 / 89.7	95.3 / 73.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	91.2 / 83.4	92 / 73
Est. result	81	91

Est. total172.1

Line O/U171.5

Diff.0.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.20

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+9.5)1.83

2 (-9.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 171.51.83

Under 171.51.83

Diff.: 3.65 · Est. total: 175.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.27 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 8.7%

Time*	1	2
15:28 +13’	4.20	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
16:57 +6’	3.32	1.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rytas Vilnius 0–0–6 Zalgiris

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Lithuania LKL	Rytas Vilnius	70-75	Zalgiris
15/03/26 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	98-81	Rytas Vilnius
22/02/26 Lithuania Cup	Zalgiris	101-85	Rytas Vilnius
27/12/25 Lithuania LKL	Rytas Vilnius	81-90	Zalgiris
02/11/25 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	79-75	Rytas Vilnius
21/06/25 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	76-69	Rytas Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania LKL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Zalgiris	7	7	0	651	511
2	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	7	5	2	634	619
3	Rytas Vilnius	5	4	1	456	417
4	Neptunas	7	4	3	606	583
5	Juventus	7	3	4	600	604
6	Siauliai	7	3	4	585	607
7	Lietkabelis	7	3	4	532	570
8	Jonava	6	2	4	455	474
9	Taurage	7	2	5	560	621
10	Nevezis	6	0	6	428	501

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rytas Vilnius	Zalgiris
Juventus	94-76 W	95-77 W
Taurage	79-71 W	96-76 W
Siauliai	95-88 W	101-82 W
Neptunas	86-77 W	93-69 W
Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	102-105 L	98-77 W
Nevezis	117-88 W	80-76 W
Lietkabelis	71-96 L	97-68 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Zalgiris (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rytas Vilnius

LWLLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Juventus Lithuania LKL	94-76	W
21/10	Taurage Lithuania LKL	79-71	W
17/10	Siauliai Lithuania LKL	95-88	W
10/10	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	86-77	W
03/10	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	102-105	L
23/05	Juventus Lithuania LKL	95-101	L
21/05	Juventus Lithuania LKL	84-92	L
16/05	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	98-103	L
13/05	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	117-88	W
03/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	71-96	L

Zalgiris

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Jonava Lithuania LKL	86-63	W
18/10	Taurage Lithuania LKL	96-76	W
11/10	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	80-76	W
04/10	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	97-68	W
27/09	Siauliai Lithuania LKL	101-82	W
20/09	Neptunas Lithuania LKL	93-69	W
17/09	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	98-77	W
12/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	95-77	W
09/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	100-69	W
07/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	107-75	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rytas Vilnius vs Zalgiris?

Our model gives 75% to Zalgiris.

How many points are expected in Rytas Vilnius vs Zalgiris?

The model estimates 172.1 total points (Rytas Vilnius 81.4 · Zalgiris 90.8).