Basketball · Italy Serie A2 · 11/10, 18:00
Prediction: Real Sebastiani Rieti vs Pistoia
Team pages: Pistoia
Prediction summary
Estimated points
160.1Total
Real Sebastiani Rieti83.9
Pistoia76.2
1X2
Real Sebastiani Rieti
Pistoia
Recent form · 10 last
Real Sebastiani Rieti
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Pistoia
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Sebastiani Rieti
1–2
Pistoia
(3 last)
- Pistoia85-86Real Sebastiani Rieti
- Real Sebastiani Rieti73-88Pistoia
- Pistoia97-95Real Sebastiani Rieti
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Sebastiani Rieti 1517 · Pistoia 1466
| Real Sebastiani Rieti | Pistoia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
160.1 points · Bet365 line 152.5 · +7.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points160.1Real Sebastiani Rieti 83.9 · Pistoia 76.2
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sebastiani Rieti (rating 1517 vs 1466).
- Real Sebastiani Rieti is a clear favourite (71% market).
- H2H favours Pistoia: 2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Real Sebastiani Rieti | Pistoia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 80 / 78.1 | 77.4 / 84.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 76.6 / 77.6 | 75.8 / 78.2 |
| Est. result | 84 | 76 |
Est. total160.1
Line O/U152.5
Diff.7.6
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sebastiani Rieti 1–0–2 Pistoia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Italy Serie A2 | Pistoia | 85-86 | Real Sebastiani Rieti |
| 19/10/25 Italy Serie A2 | Real Sebastiani Rieti | 73-88 | Pistoia |
| 26/08/25 Club Friendlies | Pistoia | 97-95 | Real Sebastiani Rieti |
Standings · Italy Serie A2
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 2 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 111 | 4 |
| 2 | Fortitudo Bologna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 151 | 4 |
| 3 | Forli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 141 | 4 |
| 4 | Real Sebastiani Rieti | 2 | 2 | 0 | 159 | 137 | 4 |
| 5 | Del Fes Avellino | 2 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 141 | 4 |
| 6 | Pesaro | 2 | 2 | 0 | 183 | 165 | 4 |
| 7 | Brindisi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 150 | 140 | 4 |
| 8 | Rinascita Basket Rimini | 2 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 132 | 2 |
| 9 | Montecatiniterme Basketball | 2 | 1 | 1 | 140 | 156 | 2 |
| 10 | UEB Gesteco Cividale | 2 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 168 | 2 |
| 11 | Torino | 2 | 1 | 1 | 141 | 156 | 2 |
| 12 | Dinamo Sassari | 2 | 1 | 1 | 142 | 149 | 2 |
| 13 | Urania Milano | 2 | 0 | 2 | 149 | 154 | 0 |
| 14 | Pistoia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 139 | 147 | 0 |
| 15 | Juvecaserta 2021 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 154 | 164 | 0 |
| 16 | Juvi Cremona | 2 | 0 | 2 | 143 | 153 | 0 |
| 17 | Mestre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 128 | 145 | 0 |
| 18 | Tramec Cento | 2 | 0 | 2 | 154 | 176 | 0 |
| 19 | Ruvo di Puglia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 153 | 178 | 0 |
| 20 | Vigevano 1955 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 133 | 165 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Sebastiani Rieti | Pistoia |
|---|---|---|
| UEB Gesteco Cividale | 78-90 L | 48-93 L |
| Torino | 80-66 W | 77-84 L |
| Libertas Livorno | 72-80 L | 62-63 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Sebastiani Rieti (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Sebastiani Rieti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Vigevano 1955 Italy Serie A2 |
78-64 | W |
| 27/09 | Juvecaserta 2021 Italy Serie A2 |
81-73 | W |
| 15/05 | UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2 |
78-90 | L |
| 13/05 | UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2 |
73-82 | L |
| 10/05 | UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2 |
73-79 | L |
| 08/05 | UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2 |
70-69 | W |
| 26/04 | Torino Italy Serie A2 |
80-66 | W |
| 18/04 | Urania Milano Italy Serie A2 |
83-88 | L |
| 12/04 | Pesaro Italy Serie A2 |
112-90 | W |
| 08/04 | Libertas Livorno Italy Serie A2 |
72-80 | L |
Pistoia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Torino Italy Serie A2 |
77-84 | L |
| 27/09 | Libertas Livorno Italy Serie A2 |
62-63 | L |
| 13/05 | Ruvo di Puglia Italy Serie A2 |
80-78 | W |
| 10/05 | Ruvo di Puglia Italy Serie A2 |
81-88 | L |
| 08/05 | Ruvo di Puglia Italy Serie A2 |
79-78 | W |
| 05/05 | Ruvo di Puglia Italy Serie A2 |
97-90 | W |
| 03/05 | Ruvo di Puglia Italy Serie A2 |
85-100 | L |
| 26/04 | Tramec Cento Italy Serie A2 |
86-99 | L |
| 19/04 | Brindisi Italy Serie A2 |
79-71 | W |
| 11/04 | UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2 |
48-93 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Sebastiani Rieti vs Pistoia?
Our model gives 71% to Real Sebastiani Rieti.
How many points are expected in Real Sebastiani Rieti vs Pistoia?
The model estimates 160.1 total points (Real Sebastiani Rieti 83.9 · Pistoia 76.2).