Basketball · Italy Serie A2 · 21/10, 20:45
Prediction: Libertas Livorno vs Fortitudo Bologna
Team pages: Libertas Livorno · Fortitudo Bologna
Prediction summary
Estimated points
151.9Total
Libertas Livorno77.7
Fortitudo Bologna74.2
1X2
Libertas Livorno
Fortitudo Bologna
Recent form · 10 last
Libertas Livorno
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Fortitudo Bologna
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Libertas Livorno
2–4
Fortitudo Bologna
(6 last)
- Fortitudo Bologna66-60Libertas Livorno
- Libertas Livorno91-73Fortitudo Bologna
- Fortitudo Bologna66-64Libertas Livorno
- Libertas Livorno66-71Fortitudo Bologna
- Fortitudo Bologna82-61Libertas Livorno
- Fortitudo Bologna66-78Libertas Livorno
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Libertas Livorno 1552 · Fortitudo Bologna 1547
| Libertas Livorno | Fortitudo Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
151.9 points · Bet365 line 151.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points151.9Libertas Livorno 77.7 · Fortitudo Bologna 74.2
Match keys
- H2H favours Fortitudo Bologna: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Libertas Livorno | Fortitudo Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.5 / 75.5 | 78.1 / 71.9 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 80.6 / 70.2 | 83.4 / 74.4 |
| Est. result | 78 | 74 |
Est. total151.9
Line O/U151.5
Diff.0.4
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertas Livorno 2–0–4 Fortitudo Bologna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/26 Club Friendlies | Fortitudo Bologna | 66-60 | Libertas Livorno |
| 06/03/26 Italy Serie A2 | Libertas Livorno | 91-73 | Fortitudo Bologna |
| 07/12/25 Italy Serie A2 | Fortitudo Bologna | 66-64 | Libertas Livorno |
| 27/04/25 Italy Serie A2 | Libertas Livorno | 66-71 | Fortitudo Bologna |
| 24/11/24 Italy Serie A2 | Fortitudo Bologna | 82-61 | Libertas Livorno |
| 14/09/24 Club Friendlies | Fortitudo Bologna | 66-78 | Libertas Livorno |
Standings · Italy Serie A2
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fortitudo Bologna | 4 | 4 | 0 | 344 | 286 | 8 |
| 2 | Libertas Livorno | 4 | 4 | 0 | 313 | 256 | 8 |
| 3 | Del Fes Avellino | 4 | 4 | 0 | 331 | 284 | 8 |
| 4 | Pesaro | 4 | 4 | 0 | 352 | 318 | 8 |
| 5 | Forli | 4 | 3 | 1 | 339 | 306 | 6 |
| 6 | Torino | 4 | 3 | 1 | 302 | 296 | 6 |
| 7 | Dinamo Sassari | 4 | 3 | 1 | 309 | 293 | 6 |
| 8 | Brindisi | 4 | 3 | 1 | 327 | 303 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Sebastiani Rieti | 4 | 3 | 1 | 308 | 300 | 6 |
| 10 | Rinascita Basket Rimini | 4 | 2 | 2 | 313 | 286 | 4 |
| 11 | UEB Gesteco Cividale | 4 | 1 | 3 | 275 | 321 | 2 |
| 12 | Pistoia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 298 | 295 | 2 |
| 13 | Juvecaserta 2021 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 327 | 336 | 2 |
| 14 | Tramec Cento | 4 | 1 | 3 | 322 | 344 | 2 |
| 15 | Montecatiniterme Basketball | 4 | 1 | 3 | 287 | 343 | 2 |
| 16 | Ruvo di Puglia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 325 | 352 | 2 |
| 17 | Juvi Cremona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 305 | 324 | 0 |
| 18 | Urania Milano | 4 | 0 | 4 | 309 | 337 | 0 |
| 19 | Mestre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 278 | 323 | 0 |
| 20 | Vigevano 1955 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 291 | 352 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Libertas Livorno
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Urania Milano Italy Serie A2 |
87-72 | W |
| 11/10 | Juvi Cremona Italy Serie A2 |
75-73 | W |
| 03/10 | Mestre Italy Serie A2 |
88-49 | W |
| 27/09 | Pistoia Italy Serie A2 |
63-62 | W |
| 03/05 | Rinascita Basket Rimini Italy Serie A2 |
90-95 | L |
| 29/04 | Urania Milano Italy Serie A2 |
102-84 | W |
| 26/04 | Pesaro Italy Serie A2 |
84-75 | W |
| 18/04 | Mestre Italy Serie A2 |
90-82 | W |
| 12/04 | Forli Italy Serie A2 |
86-91 | L |
| 08/04 | Real Sebastiani Rieti Italy Serie A2 |
80-72 | W |
Fortitudo Bologna
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Montecatiniterme Basketball Italy Serie A2 |
91-69 | W |
| 11/10 | Rinascita Basket Rimini Italy Serie A2 |
78-66 | W |
| 04/10 | Juvecaserta 2021 Italy Serie A2 |
83-81 | W |
| 27/09 | Ruvo di Puglia Italy Serie A2 |
92-70 | W |
| 25/05 | Verona Italy Serie A2 |
73-86 | L |
| 22/05 | Verona Italy Serie A2 |
74-75 | L |
| 20/05 | Verona Italy Serie A2 |
59-60 | L |
| 17/05 | Del Fes Avellino Italy Serie A2 |
93-61 | W |
| 14/05 | Del Fes Avellino Italy Serie A2 |
67-76 | L |
| 12/05 | Del Fes Avellino Italy Serie A2 |
71-75 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Libertas Livorno vs Fortitudo Bologna?
Our model gives 60% to Libertas Livorno.
How many points are expected in Libertas Livorno vs Fortitudo Bologna?
The model estimates 151.9 total points (Libertas Livorno 77.7 · Fortitudo Bologna 74.2).