Basketball · Italy Serie A2 · 21/10, 21:00

Prediction: Real Sebastiani Rieti vs Brindisi

Team pages: Real Sebastiani Rieti · Brindisi

Prediction summary

Estimated points

154.9Total

Real Sebastiani Rieti78.1

Brindisi76.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Real Sebastiani Rieti Brindisi

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sebastiani Rieti 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Brindisi 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Sebastiani Rieti 2–2 Brindisi (4 last)

Brindisi90-81Real Sebastiani Rieti
Real Sebastiani Rieti87-76Brindisi
Brindisi72-67Real Sebastiani Rieti
Real Sebastiani Rieti74-73Brindisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sebastiani Rieti 1482 · Brindisi 1521

	Real Sebastiani Rieti	Brindisi
Our model	57%	43%
Market	53%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 154.9 points · Bet365 line 152.5 · +2.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points154.9Real Sebastiani Rieti 78.1 · Brindisi 76.7

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Real Sebastiani Rieti	Brindisi
Points F\|A (Last 10)	76.5 / 77.4	76.7 / 77.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	77.2 / 78	79.2 / 76
Est. result	78	77

Est. total154.9

Line O/U152.5

Diff.2.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.74

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.83

2 (+1.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 152.51.83

Under 152.51.83

Diff.: 1.35 · Est. total: 153.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.74 → 1.74	Pinn 1.81 ★
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	2
21:38 +12’	1.74	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
20:49 +1’	1.81	2.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sebastiani Rieti 2–0–2 Brindisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Italy Serie A2	Brindisi	90-81	Real Sebastiani Rieti
17/12/25 Italy Serie A2	Real Sebastiani Rieti	87-76	Brindisi
15/01/25 Italy Serie A2	Brindisi	72-67	Real Sebastiani Rieti
21/10/24 Italy Serie A2	Real Sebastiani Rieti	74-73	Brindisi

Standings · Italy Serie A2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fortitudo Bologna	4	4	0	344	286	8
2	Libertas Livorno	4	4	0	313	256	8
3	Del Fes Avellino	4	4	0	331	284	8
4	Pesaro	4	4	0	352	318	8
5	Forli	4	3	1	339	306	6
6	Torino	4	3	1	302	296	6
7	Dinamo Sassari	4	3	1	309	293	6
8	Brindisi	4	3	1	327	303	6
9	Real Sebastiani Rieti	4	3	1	308	300	6
10	Rinascita Basket Rimini	4	2	2	313	286	4
11	UEB Gesteco Cividale	4	1	3	275	321	2
12	Pistoia	4	1	3	298	295	2
13	Juvecaserta 2021	4	1	3	327	336	2
14	Tramec Cento	4	1	3	322	344	2
15	Montecatiniterme Basketball	4	1	3	287	343	2
16	Ruvo di Puglia	4	1	3	325	352	2
17	Juvi Cremona	4	0	4	305	324	0
18	Urania Milano	4	0	4	309	337	0
19	Mestre	4	1	3	278	323	0
20	Vigevano 1955	4	0	4	291	352	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sebastiani Rieti	Brindisi
Pistoia	78-70 W	71-79 L
Torino	80-66 W	81-85 L
Urania Milano	83-88 L	84-81 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Sebastiani Rieti (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sebastiani Rieti

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Forli Italy Serie A2	71-93	L
11/10	Pistoia Italy Serie A2	78-70	W
04/10	Vigevano 1955 Italy Serie A2	78-64	W
27/09	Juvecaserta 2021 Italy Serie A2	81-73	W
15/05	UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2	78-90	L
13/05	UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2	73-82	L
10/05	UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2	73-79	L
08/05	UEB Gesteco Cividale Italy Serie A2	70-69	W
26/04	Torino Italy Serie A2	80-66	W
18/04	Urania Milano Italy Serie A2	83-88	L

Brindisi

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Torino Italy Serie A2	81-85	L
11/10	Montecatiniterme Basketball Italy Serie A2	96-78	W
04/10	Urania Milano Italy Serie A2	84-81	W
27/09	Juvi Cremona Italy Serie A2	66-59	W
14/05	Verona Italy Serie A2	69-77	L
12/05	Verona Italy Serie A2	77-70	W
09/05	Verona Italy Serie A2	71-86	L
07/05	Verona Italy Serie A2	78-80	L
26/04	Ruvo di Puglia Italy Serie A2	74-76	L
19/04	Pistoia Italy Serie A2	71-79	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sebastiani Rieti vs Brindisi?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Real Sebastiani Rieti 54% · Brindisi 46%).

How many points are expected in Real Sebastiani Rieti vs Brindisi?

The model estimates 154.9 total points (Real Sebastiani Rieti 78.1 · Brindisi 76.7).