Basketball · Brazil FPB · 13/08, 01:00
Prediction: Mogi das Cruzes vs Sao Jose
Team pages: Mogi das Cruzes · Sao Jose
Prediction summary
Estimated points
158.3Total
Mogi das Cruzes86.4
Sao Jose71.9
1X2
Mogi das Cruzes
Sao Jose
Recent form · 10 last
Mogi das Cruzes
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Sao Jose
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mogi das Cruzes
5–1
Sao Jose
(6 last)
- Mogi das Cruzes81-70Sao Jose
- Mogi das Cruzes79-75Sao Jose
- Sao Jose70-75Mogi das Cruzes
- Mogi das Cruzes78-68Sao Jose
- Sao Jose79-61Mogi das Cruzes
- Sao Jose83-85Mogi das Cruzes
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mogi das Cruzes 1548 · Sao Jose 1431
| Mogi das Cruzes | Sao Jose | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 23% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
158.3 points · Bet365 line 153.5 · +4.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points158.3Mogi das Cruzes 86.4 · Sao Jose 71.9
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mogi das Cruzes (rating 1548 vs 1431).
- Mogi das Cruzes is a clear favourite (85% market).
- H2H favours Mogi das Cruzes: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Mogi das Cruzes | Sao Jose | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 82.3 / 81.1 | 76.3 / 83 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 85.6 / 81.2 | 72.4 / 82 |
| Est. result | 86 | 72 |
Est. total158.3
Line O/U153.5
Diff.4.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mogi das Cruzes 5–0–1 Sao Jose
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 Brazil NBB | Mogi das Cruzes | 81-70 | Sao Jose |
| 25/04/26 Brazil NBB | Mogi das Cruzes | 79-75 | Sao Jose |
| 23/04/26 Brazil NBB | Sao Jose | 70-75 | Mogi das Cruzes |
| 22/02/26 Brazil NBB | Mogi das Cruzes | 78-68 | Sao Jose |
| 19/12/25 Brazil NBB | Sao Jose | 79-61 | Mogi das Cruzes |
| 16/09/25 Brazil FPB | Sao Jose | 83-85 | Mogi das Cruzes |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mogi das Cruzes | Sao Jose |
|---|---|---|
| Paulistano | 86-82 W | 79-84 L |
| Pinheiros | 93-68 W | 76-75 W |
| Franca | 77-78 L | 91-93 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Mogi das Cruzes (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mogi das Cruzes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Paulistano Brazil FPB |
86-82 | W |
| 06/08 | Pinheiros Brazil FPB |
93-68 | W |
| 16/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
77-78 | L |
| 14/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
102-90 | W |
| 10/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
70-88 | L |
| 09/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
65-97 | L |
| 06/05 | Franca Brazil NBB |
95-93 | W |
| 28/04 | Sao Jose Brazil NBB |
81-70 | W |
| 25/04 | Sao Jose Brazil NBB |
79-75 | W |
| 23/04 | Sao Jose Brazil NBB |
75-70 | W |
Sao Jose
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Corinthians Brazil FPB |
68-91 | L |
| 07/08 | Paulistano Brazil FPB |
79-84 | L |
| 28/04 | Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB |
70-81 | L |
| 25/04 | Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB |
75-79 | L |
| 23/04 | Mogi das Cruzes Brazil NBB |
70-75 | L |
| 18/04 | Uniao Corinthians Brazil NBB |
88-97 | L |
| 16/04 | Caxias Do Sul Brazil NBB |
68-65 | W |
| 11/04 | Pinheiros Brazil NBB |
76-75 | W |
| 08/04 | Brasilia Brazil NBB |
78-90 | L |
| 02/04 | Franca Brazil NBB |
91-93 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mogi das Cruzes vs Sao Jose?
Our model gives 85% to Mogi das Cruzes.
How many points are expected in Mogi das Cruzes vs Sao Jose?
The model estimates 158.3 total points (Mogi das Cruzes 86.4 · Sao Jose 71.9).