Basketball · Australia NBL1 North · 01/08, 12:00
Prediction: Cairns Marlins vs Ipswich Force
Team pages: Cairns Marlins · Ipswich Force
Prediction summary
Estimated points
192.5Total
Cairns Marlins100.5
Ipswich Force92
1X2
Cairns Marlins
Ipswich Force
Recent form · 10 last
Cairns Marlins
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Ipswich Force
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cairns Marlins
4–2
Ipswich Force
(6 last)
- Cairns Marlins106-91Ipswich Force
- Ipswich Force110-96Cairns Marlins
- Cairns Marlins95-87Ipswich Force
- Ipswich Force99-92Cairns Marlins
- Ipswich Force98-111Cairns Marlins
- Cairns Marlins94-91Ipswich Force
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cairns Marlins 1630 · Ipswich Force 1536
| Cairns Marlins | Ipswich Force | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
192.5 points · Bet365 line 191.5 · +1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points192.5Cairns Marlins 100.5 · Ipswich Force 92
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cairns Marlins (rating 1630 vs 1536).
- Cairns Marlins is a clear favourite (73% market).
- H2H favours Cairns Marlins: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Cairns Marlins | Ipswich Force | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 105.2 / 87.9 | 99.8 / 91.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 102 / 86 | 101.8 / 89.4 |
| Est. result | 101 | 92 |
Est. total192.5
Line O/U191.5
Diff.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cairns Marlins 4–0–2 Ipswich Force
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/26 Australia NBL1 North | Cairns Marlins | 106-91 | Ipswich Force |
| 13/07/25 Australia NBL1 North | Ipswich Force | 110-96 | Cairns Marlins |
| 12/07/24 Australia NBL1 North | Cairns Marlins | 95-87 | Ipswich Force |
| 22/07/23 Australia NBL1 North | Ipswich Force | 99-92 | Cairns Marlins |
| 18/06/23 Australia NBL1 North | Ipswich Force | 98-111 | Cairns Marlins |
| 13/08/22 Australia NBL1 North | Cairns Marlins | 94-91 | Ipswich Force |
Standings · Australia NBL1 North
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cairns Marlins | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1662 | 1339 | 0 |
| 2 | Gold Coast Rollers | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1797 | 1484 | 0 |
| 3 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1608 | 1402 | 0 |
| 4 | Logan Thunder | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1615 | 1423 | 0 |
| 5 | Mackay Meteors | 16 | 9 | 7 | 1536 | 1556 | 0 |
| 6 | Ipswich Force | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1562 | 1510 | 0 |
| 7 | Brisbane Capitals | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1501 | 1542 | 0 |
| 8 | Southern Districts Spartans | 16 | 7 | 9 | 1534 | 1583 | 0 |
| 9 | Townsville Heat | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1427 | 1560 | 0 |
| 10 | Northside Wizards | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1448 | 1591 | 0 |
| 11 | South West Metro Pirates | 16 | 4 | 12 | 1377 | 1644 | 0 |
| 12 | Rockhampton Rockets | 16 | 2 | 14 | 1514 | 1712 | 0 |
| 13 | North Gold Coast Seahawks | 16 | 2 | 14 | 1345 | 1580 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cairns Marlins | Ipswich Force |
|---|---|---|
| Rockhampton Rockets | 116-91 W | 112-106 W |
| Logan Thunder | 93-82 W | 93-96 L |
| North Gold Coast Seahawks | 96-83 W | 91-67 W |
| Southern Districts Spartans | 99-83 W | 79-102 L |
| Townsville Heat | 96-86 W | 131-92 W |
| Gold Coast Rollers | 103-98 W | 108-111 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cairns Marlins (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cairns Marlins
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Rockhampton Rockets Australia NBL1 North |
116-91 | W |
| 10/07 | Logan Thunder Australia NBL1 North |
93-82 | W |
| 04/07 | North Gold Coast Seahawks Australia NBL1 North |
96-83 | W |
| 03/07 | Southern Districts Spartans Australia NBL1 North |
99-83 | W |
| 26/06 | Ipswich Force Australia NBL1 North |
106-91 | W |
| 20/06 | Mackay Meteors Australia NBL1 North |
111-91 | W |
| 19/06 | Townsville Heat Australia NBL1 North |
96-86 | W |
| 13/06 | Brisbane Capitals Australia NBL1 North |
114-89 | W |
| 12/06 | Rockhampton Rockets Australia NBL1 North |
118-85 | W |
| 30/05 | Gold Coast Rollers Australia NBL1 North |
103-98 | W |
Ipswich Force
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix Australia NBL1 North |
86-81 | W |
| 18/07 | Logan Thunder Australia NBL1 North |
93-96 | L |
| 12/07 | North Gold Coast Seahawks Australia NBL1 North |
91-67 | W |
| 04/07 | Gold Coast Rollers Australia NBL1 North |
108-111 | L |
| 27/06 | Townsville Heat Australia NBL1 North |
131-92 | W |
| 26/06 | Cairns Marlins Australia NBL1 North |
91-106 | L |
| 20/06 | Southern Districts Spartans Australia NBL1 North |
79-102 | L |
| 14/06 | Northside Wizards Australia NBL1 North |
121-81 | W |
| 07/06 | Rockhampton Rockets Australia NBL1 North |
112-106 | W |
| 06/06 | North Gold Coast Seahawks Australia NBL1 North |
86-74 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cairns Marlins vs Ipswich Force?
Our model gives 73% to Cairns Marlins.
How many points are expected in Cairns Marlins vs Ipswich Force?
The model estimates 192.5 total points (Cairns Marlins 100.5 · Ipswich Force 92).