Basketball · Australia NBL1 East · 01/08, 10:30
Prediction: Sutherland Sharks vs Maitland Mustangs
Team pages: Sutherland Sharks · Maitland Mustangs
Prediction summary
Estimated points
169.2Total
Sutherland Sharks86.9
Maitland Mustangs82.3
1X2
Sutherland Sharks
Maitland Mustangs
Recent form · 10 last
Sutherland Sharks
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Maitland Mustangs
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sutherland Sharks
3–3
Maitland Mustangs
(6 last)
- Sutherland Sharks93-79Maitland Mustangs
- Sutherland Sharks87-75Maitland Mustangs
- Maitland Mustangs120-74Sutherland Sharks
- Sutherland Sharks82-85Maitland Mustangs
- Maitland Mustangs80-83Sutherland Sharks
- Maitland Mustangs110-79Sutherland Sharks
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sutherland Sharks 1598 · Maitland Mustangs 1548
| Sutherland Sharks | Maitland Mustangs | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
169.2 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · +2.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points169.2Sutherland Sharks 86.9 · Maitland Mustangs 82.3
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sutherland Sharks (rating 1598 vs 1548).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Sutherland Sharks | Maitland Mustangs | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 89.6 / 75.3 | 90.7 / 81 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 87 / 73.4 | 88.6 / 80.8 |
| Est. result | 87 | 82 |
Est. total169.2
Line O/U166.5
Diff.2.7
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutherland Sharks 3–0–3 Maitland Mustangs
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia NBL1 East | Sutherland Sharks | 93-79 | Maitland Mustangs |
| 14/06/25 Australia NBL1 East | Sutherland Sharks | 87-75 | Maitland Mustangs |
| 06/07/24 Australia NBL1 East | Maitland Mustangs | 120-74 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 20/04/24 Australia NBL1 East | Sutherland Sharks | 82-85 | Maitland Mustangs |
| 12/08/23 Australia NBL1 East | Maitland Mustangs | 80-83 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 01/07/23 Australia NBL1 East | Maitland Mustangs | 110-79 | Sutherland Sharks |
Standings · Australia NBL1 East
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1946 | 1682 | 0 |
| 2 | Norths Bears | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1759 | 1519 | 0 |
| 3 | Sutherland Sharks | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1766 | 1585 | 0 |
| 4 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1686 | 1513 | 0 |
| 5 | BA Coe | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1669 | 1499 | 0 |
| 6 | Canberra Gunners | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1680 | 1601 | 0 |
| 7 | Maitland Mustangs | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1757 | 1611 | 0 |
| 8 | Central Coast Crusaders | 20 | 10 | 10 | 1723 | 1747 | 0 |
| 9 | Newcastle Falcons | 20 | 9 | 11 | 1539 | 1606 | 0 |
| 10 | Inner West Bulls | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1588 | 1740 | 0 |
| 11 | Hills Hornets | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1565 | 1669 | 0 |
| 12 | Bankstown Bruins | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1766 | 1847 | 0 |
| 13 | Sydney Comets | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1546 | 1592 | 0 |
| 14 | Hornsby Spiders | 20 | 7 | 13 | 1671 | 1781 | 0 |
| 15 | Penrith Panthers | 20 | 3 | 17 | 1456 | 1762 | 0 |
| 16 | Albury Wodonga Bandits | 20 | 2 | 18 | 1625 | 1988 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sutherland Sharks | Maitland Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| Norths Bears | 79-93 L | 86-99 L |
| Penrith Panthers | 104-55 W | 95-81 W |
| Inner West Bulls | 97-69 W | 91-72 W |
| Canberra Gunners | 100-87 W | 94-70 W |
| Hills Hornets | 80-73 W | 72-82 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sutherland Sharks (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sutherland Sharks
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Norths Bears Australia NBL1 East |
79-93 | L |
| 18/07 | Norths Bears Australia NBL1 East |
63-62 | W |
| 17/07 | Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East |
104-55 | W |
| 11/07 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 Australia NBL1 East |
92-88 | W |
| 05/07 | Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East |
97-69 | W |
| 04/07 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Australia NBL1 East |
88-63 | W |
| 27/06 | Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East |
100-87 | W |
| 21/06 | Hills Hornets Australia NBL1 East |
80-73 | W |
| 20/06 | BA Coe Australia NBL1 East |
115-88 | W |
| 14/06 | Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East |
78-75 | W |
Maitland Mustangs
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East |
94-70 | W |
| 19/07 | Bankstown Bruins Australia NBL1 East |
87-91 | L |
| 18/07 | Newcastle Falcons Australia NBL1 East |
80-73 | W |
| 11/07 | Sydney Comets Australia NBL1 East |
110-88 | W |
| 04/07 | Hills Hornets Australia NBL1 East |
72-82 | L |
| 27/06 | Central Coast Crusaders Australia NBL1 East |
107-87 | W |
| 20/06 | Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East |
95-81 | W |
| 14/06 | Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East |
91-72 | W |
| 13/06 | Sydney Comets Australia NBL1 East |
85-67 | W |
| 30/05 | Norths Bears Australia NBL1 East |
86-99 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sutherland Sharks vs Maitland Mustangs?
Our model gives 63% to Sutherland Sharks.
How many points are expected in Sutherland Sharks vs Maitland Mustangs?
The model estimates 169.2 total points (Sutherland Sharks 86.9 · Maitland Mustangs 82.3).