Basketball · Puerto Rico Superior Nacional · 28/07, 02:00
Prediction: Ponce vs Aguada Santeros
Team pages: Ponce · Aguada Santeros
Prediction summary
Estimated points
182.9Total
Ponce93.8
Aguada Santeros89.1
1X2
Ponce
Aguada Santeros
Recent form · 10 last
Ponce
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Aguada Santeros
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ponce
3–3
Aguada Santeros
(6 last)
- Aguada Santeros93-70Ponce
- Aguada Santeros95-109Ponce
- Ponce98-91Aguada Santeros
- Aguada Santeros99-97Ponce
- Ponce93-88Aguada Santeros
- Aguada Santeros83-77Ponce
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ponce 1536 · Aguada Santeros 1536
| Ponce | Aguada Santeros | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
182.9 points · Bet365 line 188.5 · -5.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points182.9Ponce 93.8 · Aguada Santeros 89.1
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Ponce | Aguada Santeros | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 91.1 / 91.8 | 95.9 / 91.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 95.6 / 91.6 | 96 / 88.4 |
| Est. result | 94 | 89 |
Est. total182.9
Line O/U188.5
Diff.5.6
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponce 3–0–3 Aguada Santeros
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Aguada Santeros | 93-70 | Ponce |
| 27/06/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Aguada Santeros | 95-109 | Ponce |
| 07/06/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Ponce | 98-91 | Aguada Santeros |
| 14/05/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Aguada Santeros | 99-97 | Ponce |
| 27/04/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Ponce | 93-88 | Aguada Santeros |
| 16/04/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Aguada Santeros | 83-77 | Ponce |
Standings · Puerto Rico Superior Nacional · BSN 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San German | 34 | 21 | 13 | 3047 | 2983 | 0 |
| 2 | Arecibo | 34 | 17 | 17 | 3205 | 3259 | 0 |
| 3 | Aguada Santeros | 34 | 17 | 17 | 3046 | 3145 | 0 |
| 4 | Ponce | 34 | 15 | 19 | 3142 | 3103 | 0 |
| 5 | Mayaguez | 34 | 13 | 21 | 3066 | 3155 | 0 |
| 6 | Quebradillas | 34 | 10 | 24 | 3052 | 3255 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ponce
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Aguada Santeros Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
70-93 | L |
| 19/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
100-86 | W |
| 17/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
98-92 | W |
| 15/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
95-91 | W |
| 13/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
115-96 | W |
| 11/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
75-88 | L |
| 30/06 | Criollos de Caguas Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
80-104 | L |
| 28/06 | Vaqueros de Bayamon Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
81-77 | W |
| 27/06 | Aguada Santeros Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
109-95 | W |
| 22/06 | Manati Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
88-96 | L |
Aguada Santeros
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Ponce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
93-70 | W |
| 20/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
101-94 | W |
| 18/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
95-92 | W |
| 16/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
93-100 | L |
| 14/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
98-86 | W |
| 12/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
83-79 | W |
| 10/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
98-101 | L |
| 30/06 | Quebradillas Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
98-90 | W |
| 28/06 | Quebradillas Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
105-90 | W |
| 27/06 | Ponce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
95-109 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ponce vs Aguada Santeros?
Our model gives 63% to Ponce.
How many points are expected in Ponce vs Aguada Santeros?
The model estimates 182.9 total points (Ponce 93.8 · Aguada Santeros 89.1).