Basketball · Puerto Rico Superior Nacional · 03/08, 02:00
Prediction: Aguada Santeros vs Ponce
Team pages: Aguada Santeros · Ponce
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Prediction summary
Estimated points
181.5Total
Aguada Santeros93.9
Ponce87.7
1X2
Aguada Santeros
Ponce
Recent form · 10 last
Aguada Santeros
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Ponce
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aguada Santeros
3–3
Ponce
(6 last)
- Ponce89-96Aguada Santeros
- Aguada Santeros100-89Ponce
- Ponce87-80Aguada Santeros
- Aguada Santeros93-70Ponce
- Aguada Santeros95-109Ponce
- Ponce98-91Aguada Santeros
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aguada Santeros 1535 · Ponce 1519
| Aguada Santeros | Ponce | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
181.5 points · Bet365 line 184.5 · -3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points181.5Aguada Santeros 93.9 · Ponce 87.7
Match keys
- Aguada Santeros is a clear favourite (67% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Aguada Santeros | Ponce | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 93.7 / 88.7 | 89.8 / 92.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 94 / 85.8 | 87 / 91 |
| Est. result | 94 | 88 |
Est. total181.5
Line O/U184.5
Diff.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguada Santeros 3–0–3 Ponce
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Ponce | 89-96 | Aguada Santeros |
| 30/07/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Aguada Santeros | 100-89 | Ponce |
| 28/07/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Ponce | 87-80 | Aguada Santeros |
| 26/07/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Aguada Santeros | 93-70 | Ponce |
| 27/06/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Aguada Santeros | 95-109 | Ponce |
| 07/06/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional | Ponce | 98-91 | Aguada Santeros |
Standings · Puerto Rico Superior Nacional · BSN 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San German | 34 | 21 | 13 | 3047 | 2983 | 0 |
| 2 | Arecibo | 34 | 17 | 17 | 3205 | 3259 | 0 |
| 3 | Aguada Santeros | 34 | 17 | 17 | 3046 | 3145 | 0 |
| 4 | Ponce | 34 | 15 | 19 | 3142 | 3103 | 0 |
| 5 | Mayaguez | 34 | 13 | 21 | 3066 | 3155 | 0 |
| 6 | Quebradillas | 34 | 10 | 24 | 3052 | 3255 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aguada Santeros
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Ponce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
96-89 | W |
| 30/07 | Ponce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
100-89 | W |
| 28/07 | Ponce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
80-87 | L |
| 26/07 | Ponce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
93-70 | W |
| 20/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
101-94 | W |
| 18/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
95-92 | W |
| 16/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
93-100 | L |
| 14/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
98-86 | W |
| 12/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
83-79 | W |
| 10/07 | Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
98-101 | L |
Ponce
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Aguada Santeros Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
89-96 | L |
| 30/07 | Aguada Santeros Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
89-100 | L |
| 28/07 | Aguada Santeros Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
87-80 | W |
| 26/07 | Aguada Santeros Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
70-93 | L |
| 19/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
100-86 | W |
| 17/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
98-92 | W |
| 15/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
95-91 | W |
| 13/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
115-96 | W |
| 11/07 | San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
75-88 | L |
| 30/06 | Criollos de Caguas Puerto Rico Superior Nacional |
80-104 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aguada Santeros vs Ponce?
Our model gives 67% to Aguada Santeros.
How many points are expected in Aguada Santeros vs Ponce?
The model estimates 181.5 total points (Aguada Santeros 93.9 · Ponce 87.7).