Basketball · Puerto Rico Superior Nacional · 26/07, 02:00

Prediction: Aguada Santeros vs Ponce

Team pages: Aguada Santeros · Ponce

Prediction summary

Estimated points

184.1Total

Aguada Santeros92.7

Ponce91.3

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Aguada Santeros Ponce

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 178.5 points 85%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguada Santeros 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLWW

Ponce 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Aguada Santeros 2–4 Ponce (6 last)

Aguada Santeros95-109Ponce
Ponce98-91Aguada Santeros
Aguada Santeros99-97Ponce
Ponce93-88Aguada Santeros
Aguada Santeros83-77Ponce
Ponce102-65Aguada Santeros

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguada Santeros 1514 · Ponce 1555

	Aguada Santeros	Ponce
Our model	57%	43%
Market	53%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 184.1 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · +5.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points184.1Aguada Santeros 92.7 · Ponce 91.3

Match keys

H2H favours Ponce: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aguada Santeros	Ponce
Points F\|A (Last 10)	95.3 / 93.5	93.6 / 91.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	94 / 90.2	96.6 / 90.6
Est. result	93	91

Est. total184.1

Line O/U178.5

Diff.5.6

Over / Under85% / 15%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.74

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.74

Line ⓘ

Over 178.51.83

Under 178.51.83

Diff.: 8.35 · Est. total: 186.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.71 ★
2	2.30 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
13:33 +13’	1.55	2.30
14:45 +1’	1.74▲	1.95▼
17:41 +4’	1.61▼	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
02:45 +1’	1.50	2.33
09:44 +1’	1.50	2.32▼
13:45 +2’	1.39▼	2.61▲
14:44 +2’	1.36▼	2.71▲
15:44 +2’	1.34▼	2.77▲
16:46	1.33▼	2.81▲
17:44 +1’	1.45▲	2.46▼
19:45 +1’	1.44▼	2.46
21:45 +1’	1.56▲	2.21▼
10:44 +1’	1.76▲	1.92▼
11:44 +1’	1.75▼	1.93▲
15:43 +2’	1.79▲	1.87▼
16:42 +4’	1.55▼	2.21▲
18:43 +2’	1.67▲	2.02▼
20:44 +1’	1.63▼	2.08▲
21:44 +1’	1.64▲	2.16▲
22:44 +1’	1.65▲	2.14▼
23:44 +1’	1.84▲	1.90▼
01:43 +1’	1.71▼	2.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguada Santeros 2–0–4 Ponce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	Aguada Santeros	95-109	Ponce
07/06/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	Ponce	98-91	Aguada Santeros
14/05/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	Aguada Santeros	99-97	Ponce
27/04/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	Ponce	93-88	Aguada Santeros
16/04/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	Aguada Santeros	83-77	Ponce
11/04/26 Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	Ponce	102-65	Aguada Santeros

Standings · Puerto Rico Superior Nacional · BSN 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	San German	34	21	13	3047	2983
2	Arecibo	34	17	17	3205	3259
3	Aguada Santeros	34	17	17	3046	3145
4	Ponce	34	15	19	3142	3103
5	Mayaguez	34	13	21	3066	3155
6	Quebradillas	34	10	24	3052	3255

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguada Santeros

LLWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/07	Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	101-94	W
18/07	Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	95-92	W
16/07	Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	93-100	L
14/07	Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	98-86	W
12/07	Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	83-79	W
10/07	Arecibo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	98-101	L
30/06	Quebradillas Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	98-90	W
28/06	Quebradillas Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	105-90	W
27/06	Ponce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	95-109	L
25/06	Santurce Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	87-94	L

Ponce

WLWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/07	San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	100-86	W
17/07	San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	98-92	W
15/07	San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	95-91	W
13/07	San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	115-96	W
11/07	San German Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	75-88	L
30/06	Criollos de Caguas Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	80-104	L
28/06	Vaqueros de Bayamon Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	81-77	W
27/06	Aguada Santeros Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	109-95	W
22/06	Manati Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	88-96	L
20/06	Guaynabo Puerto Rico Superior Nacional	95-88	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguada Santeros vs Ponce?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Aguada Santeros 54% · Ponce 46%).

How many points are expected in Aguada Santeros vs Ponce?

The model estimates 184.1 total points (Aguada Santeros 92.7 · Ponce 91.3).