Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 21/10, 12:05

Prediction: Saga Ballooners vs Nagasaki Velca

Team pages: Saga Ballooners · Nagasaki Velca

Prediction summary

Estimated points

160.3Total

Saga Ballooners77.5

Nagasaki Velca82.9

1X2

35% 65%

Saga Ballooners Nagasaki Velca

Recent form · 10 last

Saga Ballooners 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLLL

Nagasaki Velca 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Saga Ballooners 2–4 Nagasaki Velca (6 last)

Nagasaki Velca85-73Saga Ballooners
Nagasaki Velca76-67Saga Ballooners
Nagasaki Velca68-78Saga Ballooners
Saga Ballooners86-92Nagasaki Velca
Saga Ballooners78-93Nagasaki Velca
Saga Ballooners80-51Nagasaki Velca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Saga Ballooners 1430 · Nagasaki Velca 1437

	Saga Ballooners	Nagasaki Velca
Our model	62%	38%
Market	28%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 160.3 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points160.3Saga Ballooners 77.5 · Nagasaki Velca 82.9

Match keys

Nagasaki Velca is a clear favourite (65% market).
H2H favours Nagasaki Velca: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Saga Ballooners	Nagasaki Velca
Points F\|A (Last 10)	76.4 / 91.2	71.2 / 78.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	75.8 / 92.6	71.4 / 75.2
Est. result	78	83

Est. total160.3

Line O/U159.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.35

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.83

2 (-4.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 159.51.83

Under 159.51.83

Diff.: 0.7 · Est. total: 158.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.35 → 3.35	Bet365 3.35
2	1.28 → 1.28	Pinn 1.45 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	2
12:17 +31’	3.35	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
13:39 +8’	2.67	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Saga Ballooners 2–0–4 Nagasaki Velca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/25 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	85-73	Saga Ballooners
10/10/25 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	76-67	Saga Ballooners
23/04/25 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	68-78	Saga Ballooners
05/03/25 Japan B League Premier	Saga Ballooners	86-92	Nagasaki Velca
02/12/24 Japan B League Premier	Saga Ballooners	78-93	Nagasaki Velca
01/12/24 Japan B League Premier	Saga Ballooners	80-51	Nagasaki Velca

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Hiroshima Dragonflies	8	8	0	735	630
2	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins	6	6	0	540	449
3	San En Neo Phoenix	6	5	1	519	465
4	Kyoto Hannaryz	8	6	2	697	625
5	Mikawa Seahorses	7	5	2	630	539
6	Ryukyu Golden Kings	8	4	4	663	642
7	Shimane Susanoo Magic	8	4	4	649	656
8	Shiga Lakes	8	3	5	712	716
9	Nagasaki Velca	9	3	6	640	724
10	Kobe Storks	8	2	6	609	671
11	Shinshu Brave Warriors	9	2	7	751	795
12	Osaka Evessa	8	1	7	559	694
13	Saga Ballooners	9	1	8	677	842

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Saga Ballooners	Nagasaki Velca
Kyoto Hannaryz	70-115 L	65-90 L
Gunma Crane Thunders	61-72 L	70-59 W
Kobe Storks	84-77 W	85-69 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nagasaki Velca (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Saga Ballooners

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	70-115	L
16/10	Levanga Hokkaido Japan B League Premier	90-109	L
12/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	61-72	L
10/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	84-77	W
08/10	Tokyo Alvark Japan B League Premier	74-90	L
04/10	San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier	89-93	L
03/10	San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier	61-97	L
27/09	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League 1	61-89	L
25/09	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League 1	87-100	L
03/05	Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier	87-70	W

Nagasaki Velca

WLLLLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/10	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	65-82	L
17/10	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	63-95	L
12/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	85-69	W
10/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	70-59	W
08/10	Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League Premier	74-71	W
04/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	65-90	L
03/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	76-84	L
25/09	Shimane Susanoo Magic Japan B League Premier	78-85	L
23/09	Shimane Susanoo Magic Japan B League 1	64-89	L
26/05	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier	72-64	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Saga Ballooners vs Nagasaki Velca?

Our model gives 65% to Nagasaki Velca.

How many points are expected in Saga Ballooners vs Nagasaki Velca?

The model estimates 160.3 total points (Saga Ballooners 77.5 · Nagasaki Velca 82.9).