Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 26/10, 11:05

Prediction: Nagasaki Velca vs Ryukyu Golden Kings

Team pages: Nagasaki Velca · Ryukyu Golden Kings

Prediction summary

Estimated points

154Total

Nagasaki Velca74.3

Ryukyu Golden Kings79.7

1X2

35% 65%

Nagasaki Velca Ryukyu Golden Kings

Recent form · 10 last

Nagasaki Velca 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Ryukyu Golden Kings 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Nagasaki Velca 3–3 Ryukyu Golden Kings (6 last)

Nagasaki Velca72-64Ryukyu Golden Kings
Nagasaki Velca66-60Ryukyu Golden Kings
Nagasaki Velca69-71Ryukyu Golden Kings
Ryukyu Golden Kings58-68Nagasaki Velca
Ryukyu Golden Kings95-81Nagasaki Velca
Ryukyu Golden Kings87-66Nagasaki Velca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nagasaki Velca 1437 · Ryukyu Golden Kings 1522

	Nagasaki Velca	Ryukyu Golden Kings
Our model	51%	49%
Market	31%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 154 points · Bet365 line 160.5 · -6.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points154Nagasaki Velca 74.3 · Ryukyu Golden Kings 79.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryukyu Golden Kings (rating 1437 vs 1522).
Ryukyu Golden Kings is a clear favourite (65% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Nagasaki Velca	Ryukyu Golden Kings
Points F\|A (Last 10)	74.5 / 79	85 / 79.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	76.4 / 80.2	92.2 / 74.6
Est. result	74	80

Est. total154

Line O/U160.5

Diff.6.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.05

21.34

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+7.5)1.83

2 (-7.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 160.51.83

Under 160.51.83

Diff.: 1.65 · Est. total: 158.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.05 → 3.05	Pinn 3.92 ★
2	1.34 → 1.34	Bet365 1.34

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	2
15:58 +2’	3.05	1.34
16:38 +18’	3.30▲	1.29▼
17:40 +14’	3.05▼	1.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:18 +41’	3.92	1.22
16:17 +39’	3.92	1.22▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nagasaki Velca 3–0–3 Ryukyu Golden Kings

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	72-64	Ryukyu Golden Kings
24/05/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	66-60	Ryukyu Golden Kings
23/05/26 Japan B League Premier	Nagasaki Velca	69-71	Ryukyu Golden Kings
15/03/26 Japan B League Premier	Ryukyu Golden Kings	58-68	Nagasaki Velca
14/03/26 Japan B League Premier	Ryukyu Golden Kings	95-81	Nagasaki Velca
20/04/25 Japan B League Premier	Ryukyu Golden Kings	87-66	Nagasaki Velca

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Nagoya Diamond Dolphins	8	8	0	734	603
2	Hiroshima Dragonflies	10	9	1	926	810
3	San En Neo Phoenix	7	6	1	610	554
4	Kyoto Hannaryz	9	7	2	799	704
5	Mikawa Seahorses	8	6	2	721	621
6	Ryukyu Golden Kings	10	6	4	850	792
7	Shiga Lakes	10	5	5	893	881
8	Shimane Susanoo Magic	9	4	5	728	738
9	Nagasaki Velca	11	4	7	809	879
10	Kobe Storks	10	2	8	778	854
11	Shinshu Brave Warriors	11	2	9	921	979
12	Saga Ballooners	10	1	9	743	926
13	Osaka Evessa	11	1	10	762	977

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nagasaki Velca	Ryukyu Golden Kings
Shiga Lakes	85-89 L	99-67 W
Altiri Chiba	65-82 L	94-65 W
Gunma Crane Thunders	70-59 W	93-85 W
Shimane Susanoo Magic	78-85 L	90-69 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ryukyu Golden Kings (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nagasaki Velca

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	85-89	L
21/10	Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier	84-66	W
19/10	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	65-82	L
17/10	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	63-95	L
12/10	Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier	85-69	W
10/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	70-59	W
08/10	Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League Premier	74-71	W
04/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	65-90	L
03/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	76-84	L
25/09	Shimane Susanoo Magic Japan B League Premier	78-85	L

Ryukyu Golden Kings

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	93-85	W
21/10	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	94-65	W
19/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	99-67	W
16/10	Yokohama B-Corsairs Japan B League Premier	85-87	L
10/10	Shimane Susanoo Magic Japan B League Premier	90-69	W
08/10	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	65-76	L
04/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	72-98	L
03/10	Shiga Lakes Japan B League Premier	94-87	W
23/09	Tokyo Alvark Japan B League 1	85-74	W
22/09	Tokyo Alvark Japan B League 1	73-84	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nagasaki Velca vs Ryukyu Golden Kings?

Our model gives 65% to Ryukyu Golden Kings.

How many points are expected in Nagasaki Velca vs Ryukyu Golden Kings?

The model estimates 154 total points (Nagasaki Velca 74.3 · Ryukyu Golden Kings 79.7).