Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 04/10, 07:05

Prediction: Chiba Jets vs Tokyo Alvark

Team pages: Chiba Jets · Tokyo Alvark

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.7Total

Chiba Jets85.7

Tokyo Alvark87.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

46% 54%

Chiba Jets Tokyo Alvark

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Chiba Jets 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Tokyo Alvark 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chiba Jets 3–3 Tokyo Alvark (6 last)

Chiba Jets131-138Tokyo Alvark
Chiba Jets72-64Tokyo Alvark
Chiba Jets73-75Tokyo Alvark
Tokyo Alvark69-81Chiba Jets
Tokyo Alvark78-69Chiba Jets
Tokyo Alvark65-92Chiba Jets

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chiba Jets 1503 · Tokyo Alvark 1560

	Chiba Jets	Tokyo Alvark
Our model	55%	45%
Market	44%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 172.7 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · -8.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.7Chiba Jets 85.7 · Tokyo Alvark 87.1

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Chiba Jets	Tokyo Alvark
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.3 / 91.1	91.7 / 90.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	94.8 / 101.8	86 / 95.6
Est. result	86	87

Est. total172.7

Line O/U181.5

Diff.8.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.12

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.83

2 (-2.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.83

Under 181.51.83

Diff.: 0.4 · Est. total: 181.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.74 → 2.12▲	Pinn 2.14
2	1.95 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.69 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
14:14 +8’	1.74	1.95
15:25 +4’	1.83▲	1.83▼
16:34 +4’	2.12▲	1.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:27 +2’	2.05	1.76
16:20 +18’	2.14▲	1.69▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chiba Jets 3–0–3 Tokyo Alvark

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/10/26 Japan B League Premier	Chiba Jets	131-138	Tokyo Alvark
08/02/26 Japan B League 1	Chiba Jets	72-64	Tokyo Alvark
07/02/26 Japan B League 1	Chiba Jets	73-75	Tokyo Alvark
02/11/25 Japan B League 1	Tokyo Alvark	69-81	Chiba Jets
01/11/25 Japan B League 1	Tokyo Alvark	78-69	Chiba Jets
11/05/25 Japan B League 1	Tokyo Alvark	65-92	Chiba Jets

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Gunma Crane Thunders	2	2	0	167	133
2	Tokyo Alvark	3	2	1	296	289
3	Sendai 89ers	2	1	1	154	130
4	Utsunomiya Brex	2	1	1	159	152
5	Yokohama B-Corsairs	2	1	1	152	159
6	Akita Northern Happinets	2	1	1	130	154
7	Tokyo Sun Rockers	2	1	1	187	176
8	Levanga Hokkaido	2	1	1	183	175
9	Toyama Grouses	2	1	1	180	184
10	Chiba Jets	3	1	2	307	325
11	Ibaraki Robots	2	0	2	157	171
12	Altiri Chiba	2	0	2	133	167
13	Kanagawa Brave Thunders	2	0	2	141	183

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chiba Jets

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	Tokyo Alvark Japan B League Premier	131-138	L
26/09	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League 1	79-95	L
25/09	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League 1	97-92	W
16/05	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League 1	93-102	L
15/05	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League 1	74-82	L
11/05	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League 1	72-68	W
10/05	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League 1	85-79	W
09/05	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League 1	68-87	L
03/05	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	96-87	W
02/05	Altiri Chiba Japan B League Premier	98-81	W

Tokyo Alvark

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier	138-131	W
23/09	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League 1	74-85	L
22/09	Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League 1	84-73	W
08/05	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League 1	56-96	L
07/05	Nagasaki Velca Japan B League 1	78-93	L
03/05	Levanga Hokkaido Japan B League 1	96-97	L
02/05	Levanga Hokkaido Japan B League 1	111-104	W
26/04	Shiga Lakes Japan B League 1	87-77	W
25/04	Shiga Lakes Japan B League 1	101-74	W
22/04	Fighting Eagles Nagoya Japan B League 1	92-71	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chiba Jets vs Tokyo Alvark?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Chiba Jets 46% · Tokyo Alvark 54%).

How many points are expected in Chiba Jets vs Tokyo Alvark?

The model estimates 172.7 total points (Chiba Jets 85.7 · Tokyo Alvark 87.1).