Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 26/10, 11:05
Prediction: Saga Ballooners vs Tokyo Alvark
Team pages: Saga Ballooners · Tokyo Alvark
Prediction summary
Estimated points
170.6Total
Saga Ballooners77.8
Tokyo Alvark92.9
1X2
Saga Ballooners
Tokyo Alvark
Recent form · 10 last
Saga Ballooners
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Tokyo Alvark
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Saga Ballooners
2–4
Tokyo Alvark
(6 last)
- Tokyo Alvark90-74Saga Ballooners
- Tokyo Alvark96-83Saga Ballooners
- Tokyo Alvark78-71Saga Ballooners
- Saga Ballooners90-77Tokyo Alvark
- Saga Ballooners91-64Tokyo Alvark
- Tokyo Alvark79-66Saga Ballooners
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Saga Ballooners 1388 · Tokyo Alvark 1561
| Saga Ballooners | Tokyo Alvark | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 8% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
170.6 points · Bet365 line 169.5 · +1.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points170.6Saga Ballooners 77.8 · Tokyo Alvark 92.9
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tokyo Alvark (rating 1388 vs 1561).
- Tokyo Alvark is a clear favourite (86% market).
- H2H favours Tokyo Alvark: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Saga Ballooners | Tokyo Alvark | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 74.3 / 92.6 | 93.3 / 84.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 74.2 / 91.4 | 88.2 / 79.6 |
| Est. result | 78 | 93 |
Est. total170.6
Line O/U169.5
Diff.1.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Saga Ballooners 2–0–4 Tokyo Alvark
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/26 Japan B League Premier | Tokyo Alvark | 90-74 | Saga Ballooners |
| 15/02/26 Japan B League Premier | Tokyo Alvark | 96-83 | Saga Ballooners |
| 14/02/26 Japan B League Premier | Tokyo Alvark | 78-71 | Saga Ballooners |
| 07/12/25 Japan B League Premier | Saga Ballooners | 90-77 | Tokyo Alvark |
| 06/12/25 Japan B League Premier | Saga Ballooners | 91-64 | Tokyo Alvark |
| 27/10/24 Japan B League Premier | Tokyo Alvark | 79-66 | Saga Ballooners |
Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nagoya Diamond Dolphins | 8 | 8 | 0 | 734 | 603 | 0 |
| 2 | Hiroshima Dragonflies | 10 | 9 | 1 | 926 | 810 | 0 |
| 3 | San En Neo Phoenix | 7 | 6 | 1 | 610 | 554 | 0 |
| 4 | Kyoto Hannaryz | 9 | 7 | 2 | 799 | 704 | 0 |
| 5 | Mikawa Seahorses | 8 | 6 | 2 | 721 | 621 | 0 |
| 6 | Ryukyu Golden Kings | 10 | 6 | 4 | 850 | 792 | 0 |
| 7 | Shiga Lakes | 10 | 5 | 5 | 893 | 881 | 0 |
| 8 | Shimane Susanoo Magic | 9 | 4 | 5 | 728 | 738 | 0 |
| 9 | Nagasaki Velca | 11 | 4 | 7 | 809 | 879 | 0 |
| 10 | Kobe Storks | 10 | 2 | 8 | 778 | 854 | 0 |
| 11 | Shinshu Brave Warriors | 11 | 2 | 9 | 921 | 979 | 0 |
| 12 | Saga Ballooners | 10 | 1 | 9 | 743 | 926 | 0 |
| 13 | Osaka Evessa | 11 | 1 | 10 | 762 | 977 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Saga Ballooners
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Nagasaki Velca Japan B League Premier |
66-84 | L |
| 18/10 | Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier |
70-115 | L |
| 16/10 | Levanga Hokkaido Japan B League Premier |
90-109 | L |
| 12/10 | Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier |
61-72 | L |
| 10/10 | Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier |
84-77 | W |
| 08/10 | Tokyo Alvark Japan B League Premier |
74-90 | L |
| 04/10 | San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier |
89-93 | L |
| 03/10 | San En Neo Phoenix Japan B League Premier |
61-97 | L |
| 27/09 | Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League 1 |
61-89 | L |
| 25/09 | Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League 1 |
87-100 | L |
Tokyo Alvark
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Mikawa Seahorses Japan B League Premier |
82-91 | L |
| 22/10 | Ibaraki Robots Japan B League Premier |
66-69 | L |
| 19/10 | Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier |
90-74 | W |
| 17/10 | Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier |
100-86 | W |
| 12/10 | Osaka Evessa Japan B League Premier |
103-78 | W |
| 10/10 | Kanagawa Brave Thunders Japan B League Premier |
94-82 | W |
| 08/10 | Saga Ballooners Japan B League Premier |
90-74 | W |
| 04/10 | Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier |
96-71 | W |
| 02/10 | Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier |
138-131 | W |
| 23/09 | Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League 1 |
74-85 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Saga Ballooners vs Tokyo Alvark?
Our model gives 86% to Tokyo Alvark.
How many points are expected in Saga Ballooners vs Tokyo Alvark?
The model estimates 170.6 total points (Saga Ballooners 77.8 · Tokyo Alvark 92.9).