Basketball · Australia NBL1 North Women · 11/07, 10:00
Prediction: Townsville Heat (W) vs Logan Thunder (W)
Prediction summary
Estimated points
163Total
Townsville Heat (W)80.5
Logan Thunder (W)82.6
1X2
Even — no clear favourite
Townsville Heat (W)
Logan Thunder (W)
The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.
Recent form · 10 last
Townsville Heat (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Logan Thunder (W)
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Townsville Heat (W)
4–2
Logan Thunder (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Townsville Heat (W) 1564 · Logan Thunder (W) 1616
| Townsville Heat (W) | Logan Thunder (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
163 points · Bet365 line 161.5 · +1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points163Townsville Heat (W) 80.5 · Logan Thunder (W) 82.6
Match keys
- H2H favours Townsville Heat (W): 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Townsville Heat (W) | Logan Thunder (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 87.6 / 75.2 | 88.4 / 75.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 86.2 / 74.4 | 91.2 / 79.4 |
| Est. result | 81 | 83 |
Est. total163
Line O/U161.5
Diff.1.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Townsville Heat (W) 4–0–2 Logan Thunder (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/25 Australia NBL1 North Women | Logan Thunder (W) | 78-59 | Townsville Heat (W) |
| 24/05/24 Australia NBL1 North Women | Townsville Heat (W) | 79-64 | Logan Thunder (W) |
| 23/04/23 Australia NBL1 North Women | Logan Thunder (W) | 68-75 | Townsville Heat (W) |
| 27/08/22 Australia NBL1 North Women | Logan Thunder (W) | 48-80 | Townsville Heat (W) |
| 26/08/22 Australia NBL1 North Women | Logan Thunder (W) | 57-85 | Townsville Heat (W) |
| 11/06/22 Australia NBL1 North Women | Townsville Heat (W) | 77-95 | Logan Thunder (W) |
Standings · Australia NBL1 North Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Thunder (W) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 1130 | 939 | 0 |
| 2 | Cairns Dolphins (W) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 1276 | 1063 | 0 |
| 3 | Southern District Spartans (W) | 15 | 10 | 5 | 1257 | 1133 | 0 |
| 4 | Townsville Heat (W) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 1175 | 1097 | 0 |
| 5 | Mackay Meteorettes (W) | 13 | 8 | 5 | 1175 | 1027 | 0 |
| 6 | Northside Wizards (W) | 13 | 8 | 5 | 1091 | 1040 | 0 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1035 | 998 | 0 |
| 8 | North Gold Coast Seahawks (W) | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1066 | 1106 | 0 |
| 9 | Rockhampton Cyclones (W) | 13 | 4 | 9 | 994 | 1104 | 0 |
| 10 | Gold Coast Rollers (W) | 13 | 3 | 10 | 903 | 1035 | 0 |
| 11 | Brisbane Capitals (W) | 14 | 3 | 11 | 1038 | 1222 | 0 |
| 12 | South West Metro Pirates (W) | 14 | 3 | 11 | 934 | 1121 | 0 |
| 13 | Ipswich Force (W) | 14 | 3 | 11 | 987 | 1176 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Townsville Heat (W) | Logan Thunder (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Rockhampton Cyclones (W) | 80-83 L | 87-82 W |
| Cairns Dolphins (W) | 91-69 W | 91-83 W |
| North Gold Coast Seahawks (W) | 75-83 L | 91-84 W |
| Southern District Spartans (W) | 104-69 W | 91-71 W |
| Gold Coast Rollers (W) | 76-61 W | 73-59 W |
| Northside Wizards (W) | 89-84 W | 93-80 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Townsville Heat (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Rockhampton Cyclones (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
80-83 | L |
| 03/07 | Mackay Meteorettes (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
88-78 | W |
| 27/06 | Ipswich Force (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
97-59 | W |
| 19/06 | Cairns Dolphins (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
91-69 | W |
| 13/06 | North Gold Coast Seahawks (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
75-83 | L |
| 07/06 | Southern District Spartans (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
104-69 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane Capitals (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
93-71 | W |
| 29/05 | Gold Coast Rollers (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
76-61 | W |
| 22/05 | Mackay Meteorettes (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
83-95 | L |
| 16/05 | Northside Wizards (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
89-84 | W |
Logan Thunder (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Cairns Dolphins (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
91-83 | W |
| 04/07 | Northside Wizards (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
93-80 | W |
| 03/07 | South West Metro Pirates (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
82-73 | W |
| 28/06 | North Gold Coast Seahawks (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
91-84 | W |
| 20/06 | South West Metro Pirates (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
99-77 | W |
| 13/06 | Southern District Spartans (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
91-71 | W |
| 05/06 | Rockhampton Cyclones (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
87-82 | W |
| 30/05 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
92-81 | W |
| 29/05 | North Gold Coast Seahawks (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
85-66 | W |
| 15/05 | Gold Coast Rollers (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
73-59 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Townsville Heat (W) vs Logan Thunder (W)?
Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Townsville Heat (W) 44% · Logan Thunder (W) 56%).
How many points are expected in Townsville Heat (W) vs Logan Thunder (W)?
The model estimates 163 total points (Townsville Heat (W) 80.5 · Logan Thunder (W) 82.6).