Basketball · Denmark Basketligaen · 04/11, 19:00
Prediction: Vaerlose vs Team FOG Naestved
Team pages: Vaerlose · Team FOG Naestved
Prediction summary
Estimated points
174.9Total
Vaerlose85
Team FOG Naestved90
1X2
Vaerlose
Team FOG Naestved
Recent form · 10 last
Vaerlose
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Team FOG Naestved
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vaerlose
1–5
Team FOG Naestved
(6 last)
- Vaerlose67-99Team FOG Naestved
- Team FOG Naestved115-57Vaerlose
- Team FOG Naestved125-93Vaerlose
- Vaerlose69-92Team FOG Naestved
- Vaerlose70-105Team FOG Naestved
- Team FOG Naestved86-92Vaerlose
Model analysis
Estimated points174.9Vaerlose 85 · Team FOG Naestved 90
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Team FOG Naestved (rating 1425 vs 1618).
- H2H favours Team FOG Naestved: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Vaerlose | Team FOG Naestved | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 81.8 / 91 | 99.7 / 74.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 82.4 / 96.2 | 104.4 / 73.4 |
| Est. result | 85 | 90 |
Est. total174.9
Line O/U178
Diff.3.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vaerlose 1–0–5 Team FOG Naestved
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/25 Denmark Basketligaen | Vaerlose | 67-99 | Team FOG Naestved |
| 15/10/25 Denmark Basketligaen | Team FOG Naestved | 115-57 | Vaerlose |
| 16/01/25 Denmark Basketligaen | Team FOG Naestved | 125-93 | Vaerlose |
| 27/10/24 Denmark Basketligaen | Vaerlose | 69-92 | Team FOG Naestved |
| 11/04/24 Denmark Basketligaen | Vaerlose | 70-105 | Team FOG Naestved |
| 25/03/24 Denmark Basketligaen | Team FOG Naestved | 86-92 | Vaerlose |
Standings · Denmark Basketligaen
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team FOG Naestved | 8 | 8 | 0 | 830 | 562 | 16 |
| 2 | Bakken Bears | 7 | 7 | 0 | 739 | 533 | 14 |
| 3 | Horsens IC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 701 | 635 | 12 |
| 4 | Svendborg Rabbits | 8 | 6 | 2 | 729 | 660 | 12 |
| 5 | Randers Cimbria | 8 | 5 | 3 | 762 | 686 | 10 |
| 6 | Copenhagen Basketball | 7 | 4 | 3 | 573 | 571 | 8 |
| 7 | Holbæk-Stenhus | 8 | 3 | 5 | 609 | 713 | 6 |
| 8 | Gladsaxe | 8 | 2 | 6 | 623 | 720 | 4 |
| 9 | Vaerlose | 8 | 2 | 6 | 659 | 736 | 4 |
| 10 | BK Vejen | 8 | 2 | 6 | 648 | 764 | 4 |
| 11 | BMS Herlev | 8 | 1 | 7 | 616 | 785 | 2 |
| 12 | Bears Academy | 8 | 1 | 7 | 619 | 743 | 2 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vaerlose | Team FOG Naestved |
|---|---|---|
| BMS Herlev | 107-99 W | 117-55 W |
| Holbæk-Stenhus | 64-68 L | 117-56 W |
| Bakken Bears | 82-123 L | 81-87 L |
| BK Vejen | 80-92 L | 107-82 W |
| Horsens IC | 79-99 L | 101-73 W |
| Copenhagen Basketball | 74-88 L | 90-66 W |
| Gladsaxe | 88-78 W | 99-67 W |
| Bears Academy | 70-91 L | 113-80 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 6 L | 7 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Team FOG Naestved (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vaerlose
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | BMS Herlev Denmark Basketligaen |
107-99 | W |
| 24/10 | Holbæk-Stenhus Denmark Basketligaen |
64-68 | L |
| 18/10 | Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen |
82-123 | L |
| 08/10 | BK Vejen Denmark Basketligaen |
80-92 | L |
| 02/10 | Horsens IC Denmark Basketligaen |
79-99 | L |
| 27/09 | Randers Cimbria Denmark Basketligaen |
85-89 | L |
| 22/09 | Copenhagen Basketball Denmark Basketligaen |
74-88 | L |
| 19/09 | Gladsaxe Denmark Basketligaen |
88-78 | W |
| 28/04 | Bears Academy Denmark Basketligaen |
70-91 | L |
| 23/04 | Holbæk-Stenhus Denmark Basketligaen |
89-83 | W |
Team FOG Naestved
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Bears Academy Denmark Basketligaen |
113-80 | W |
| 24/10 | Gladsaxe Denmark Basketligaen |
99-67 | W |
| 19/10 | BK Vejen Denmark Basketligaen |
107-82 | W |
| 15/10 | Svendborg Rabbits Denmark Basketligaen |
86-83 | W |
| 10/10 | BMS Herlev Denmark Basketligaen |
117-55 | W |
| 30/09 | Copenhagen Basketball Denmark Basketligaen |
90-66 | W |
| 27/09 | Horsens IC Denmark Basketligaen |
101-73 | W |
| 24/09 | Holbæk-Stenhus Denmark Basketligaen |
117-56 | W |
| 25/05 | Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen |
81-87 | L |
| 21/05 | Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen |
86-98 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vaerlose vs Team FOG Naestved?
Our model gives 64% to Team FOG Naestved.
How many points are expected in Vaerlose vs Team FOG Naestved?
The model estimates 174.9 total points (Vaerlose 85 · Team FOG Naestved 90).