Basketball · Denmark Basketligaen · 12/11, 19:00

Prediction: Randers Cimbria vs Team FOG Naestved

Team pages: Randers Cimbria · Team FOG Naestved

Prediction summary

Estimated points

183.8Total

Randers Cimbria89.9

Team FOG Naestved93.8

1X2

39% 61%

Randers Cimbria Team FOG Naestved

Markets

Under 181.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Randers Cimbria 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWLWW

Team FOG Naestved 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Randers Cimbria 3–3 Team FOG Naestved (6 last)

Randers Cimbria122-94Team FOG Naestved
Team FOG Naestved105-104Randers Cimbria
Randers Cimbria98-116Team FOG Naestved
Team FOG Naestved98-101Randers Cimbria
Team FOG Naestved101-90Randers Cimbria
Randers Cimbria96-81Team FOG Naestved

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Randers Cimbria 1547 · Team FOG Naestved 1633

	Randers Cimbria	Team FOG Naestved
Our model	51%	49%
Market	36%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 183.8 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · +2.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points183.8Randers Cimbria 89.9 · Team FOG Naestved 93.8

Over / Under 181.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~175.3 pts · strength 6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Team FOG Naestved (rating 1547 vs 1633).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Randers Cimbria	Team FOG Naestved
Points F\|A (Last 10)	95.5 / 83.9	100.5 / 70.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.8 / 87.6	98.8 / 73.6
Est. result	90	94

Est. total183.8

Line O/U181.5

Diff.2.3

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.60

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)1.80

2 (-5.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.83

Under 181.51.83

Diff.: 6.5 · Est. total: 175

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
2	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.47 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	2
17:36 +12’	2.60	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
19:45 +3’	3.16	1.30
21:45 +8’	2.65▼	1.43▲
22:34 +13’	2.58▼	1.45▲
23:45 +1’	2.51▼	1.48▲
01:35 +12’	2.70▲	1.41▼
02:45 +2’	2.63▼	1.43▲
04:44 +2’	2.55▼	1.46▲
05:35 +10’	2.49▼	1.48▲
08:43 +3’	2.53▲	1.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Randers Cimbria 3–0–3 Team FOG Naestved

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Randers Cimbria	122-94	Team FOG Naestved
16/03/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Team FOG Naestved	105-104	Randers Cimbria
08/02/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Randers Cimbria	98-116	Team FOG Naestved
24/01/26 Denmark Cup	Team FOG Naestved	98-101	Randers Cimbria
09/10/25 Denmark Basketligaen	Team FOG Naestved	101-90	Randers Cimbria
27/03/25 Denmark Basketligaen	Randers Cimbria	96-81	Team FOG Naestved

Standings · Denmark Basketligaen

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Team FOG Naestved	10	10	0	1005	701	20
2	Horsens IC	10	8	2	892	776	16
3	Bakken Bears	8	7	1	816	613	14
4	Svendborg Rabbits	9	7	2	815	719	14
5	Randers Cimbria	9	6	3	858	776	12
6	Copenhagen Basketball	9	5	4	756	734	10
7	Holbæk-Stenhus	10	4	6	771	874	8
8	Gladsaxe	10	3	7	794	889	6
9	BK Vejen	9	3	6	728	842	6
10	Vaerlose	10	2	8	780	917	4
11	BMS Herlev	10	1	9	740	976	2
12	Bears Academy	10	1	9	788	926	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Randers Cimbria	Team FOG Naestved
Copenhagen Basketball	96-90 W	90-66 W
Gladsaxe	110-80 W	99-67 W
Horsens IC	84-94 L	101-73 W
BMS Herlev	93-71 W	117-55 W
Bakken Bears	86-103 L	80-77 W
Bears Academy	117-73 W	113-80 W
Vaerlose	89-85 W	95-62 W
Svendborg Rabbits	83-96 L	86-83 W
Holbæk-Stenhus	100-84 W	117-56 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 3 L	9 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Team FOG Naestved (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Randers Cimbria

WWLWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Copenhagen Basketball Denmark Basketligaen	96-90	W
30/10	Gladsaxe Denmark Basketligaen	110-80	W
23/10	Horsens IC Denmark Basketligaen	84-94	L
18/10	BMS Herlev Denmark Basketligaen	93-71	W
10/10	Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen	86-103	L
03/10	Bears Academy Denmark Basketligaen	117-73	W
27/09	Vaerlose Denmark Basketligaen	89-85	W
23/09	Svendborg Rabbits Denmark Basketligaen	83-96	L
17/09	Holbæk-Stenhus Denmark Basketligaen	100-84	W
20/04	Copenhagen Basketball Denmark Basketligaen	97-63	W

Team FOG Naestved

WWWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen	80-77	W
04/11	Vaerlose Denmark Basketligaen	95-62	W
28/10	Bears Academy Denmark Basketligaen	113-80	W
24/10	Gladsaxe Denmark Basketligaen	99-67	W
19/10	BK Vejen Denmark Basketligaen	107-82	W
15/10	Svendborg Rabbits Denmark Basketligaen	86-83	W
10/10	BMS Herlev Denmark Basketligaen	117-55	W
30/09	Copenhagen Basketball Denmark Basketligaen	90-66	W
27/09	Horsens IC Denmark Basketligaen	101-73	W
24/09	Holbæk-Stenhus Denmark Basketligaen	117-56	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Randers Cimbria vs Team FOG Naestved?

Our model gives 61% to Team FOG Naestved.

How many points are expected in Randers Cimbria vs Team FOG Naestved?

The model estimates 183.8 total points (Randers Cimbria 89.9 · Team FOG Naestved 93.8).

Over or under 181.5 points?

Recent history points to under 181.5 points (65%).