Basketball · Denmark Basketligaen · 15/10, 19:00

Prediction: Team FOG Naestved vs Svendborg Rabbits

Team pages: Team FOG Naestved · Svendborg Rabbits

Prediction summary

Estimated points

174.7Total

Team FOG Naestved94.3

Svendborg Rabbits80.4

1X2

84% 16%

Team FOG Naestved Svendborg Rabbits

Recent form · 10 last

Team FOG Naestved 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWWWW

Svendborg Rabbits 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Team FOG Naestved 5–1 Svendborg Rabbits (6 last)

Svendborg Rabbits80-95Team FOG Naestved
Team FOG Naestved111-87Svendborg Rabbits
Svendborg Rabbits63-75Team FOG Naestved
Team FOG Naestved88-101Svendborg Rabbits
Team FOG Naestved92-90Svendborg Rabbits
Svendborg Rabbits83-86Team FOG Naestved

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Team FOG Naestved 1574 · Svendborg Rabbits 1504

	Team FOG Naestved	Svendborg Rabbits
Our model	72%	28%
Market	88%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 174.7 points · Bet365 line 175.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points174.7Team FOG Naestved 94.3 · Svendborg Rabbits 80.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Team FOG Naestved (rating 1574 vs 1504).
Team FOG Naestved is a clear favourite (84% market).
H2H favours Team FOG Naestved: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Team FOG Naestved	Svendborg Rabbits
Points F\|A (Last 10)	97.2 / 78.5	88 / 84.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	101.2 / 67.4	89.2 / 78.8
Est. result	94	80

Est. total174.7

Line O/U175.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.07

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-14.5)1.83

2 (+14.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 175.51.83

Under 175.51.83

Diff.: 1.6 · Est. total: 173.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.09 → 1.07▼	Pinn 1.08 ★
2	6.75 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 9.5%

Time*	1	2
15:21 +27’	1.09	6.75
16:30 +17’	1.07▼	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
19:09 +40’	1.09	5.53
21:36 +16’	1.09▼	5.57▲
00:26 +20’	1.09▼	5.71▲
00:54 +53’	1.08▼	5.77▲
16:44 +3’	1.08▼	5.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Team FOG Naestved 5–0–1 Svendborg Rabbits

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Svendborg Rabbits	80-95	Team FOG Naestved
04/05/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Team FOG Naestved	111-87	Svendborg Rabbits
30/04/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Svendborg Rabbits	63-75	Team FOG Naestved
27/04/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Team FOG Naestved	88-101	Svendborg Rabbits
30/03/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Team FOG Naestved	92-90	Svendborg Rabbits
12/03/26 Denmark Basketligaen	Svendborg Rabbits	83-86	Team FOG Naestved

Standings · Denmark Basketligaen

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Team FOG Naestved	4	4	0	425	250	8
2	Bakken Bears	4	4	0	406	309	8
3	Svendborg Rabbits	5	4	1	446	394	8
4	Randers Cimbria	5	3	2	475	441	6
5	Horsens IC	5	3	2	408	402	6
6	Copenhagen Basketball	4	2	2	300	306	4
7	BK Vejen	4	2	2	332	369	4
8	Holbæk-Stenhus	5	2	3	383	447	4
9	Gladsaxe	5	1	4	387	439	2
10	Vaerlose	5	1	4	406	446	2
11	BMS Herlev	5	1	4	379	480	2
12	Bears Academy	5	1	4	391	455	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Team FOG Naestved	Svendborg Rabbits
Horsens IC	101-73 W	70-92 L
Holbæk-Stenhus	117-56 W	86-75 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Team FOG Naestved (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Team FOG Naestved

WWWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	BMS Herlev Denmark Basketligaen	117-55	W
30/09	Copenhagen Basketball Denmark Basketligaen	90-66	W
27/09	Horsens IC Denmark Basketligaen	101-73	W
24/09	Holbæk-Stenhus Denmark Basketligaen	117-56	W
25/05	Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen	81-87	L
21/05	Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen	86-98	L
18/05	Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen	81-91	L
14/05	Bakken Bears Denmark Basketligaen	93-92	W
07/05	Svendborg Rabbits Denmark Basketligaen	95-80	W
04/05	Svendborg Rabbits Denmark Basketligaen	111-87	W

Svendborg Rabbits

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/10	Gladsaxe Denmark Basketligaen	92-70	W
02/10	BK Vejen Denmark Basketligaen	102-74	W
26/09	Holbæk-Stenhus Denmark Basketligaen	86-75	W
23/09	Randers Cimbria Denmark Basketligaen	96-83	W
17/09	Horsens IC Denmark Basketligaen	70-92	L
14/05	Horsens IC Denmark Basketligaen	103-78	W
07/05	Team FOG Naestved Denmark Basketligaen	80-95	L
04/05	Team FOG Naestved Denmark Basketligaen	87-111	L
30/04	Team FOG Naestved Denmark Basketligaen	63-75	L
27/04	Team FOG Naestved Denmark Basketligaen	101-88	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Team FOG Naestved vs Svendborg Rabbits?

Our model gives 84% to Team FOG Naestved.

How many points are expected in Team FOG Naestved vs Svendborg Rabbits?

The model estimates 174.7 total points (Team FOG Naestved 94.3 · Svendborg Rabbits 80.4).