Basketball · BNXT League · 14/10, 19:30

Prediction: Donar Groningen vs Spirou Charleroi

Team pages: Donar Groningen · Spirou Charleroi

Prediction summary

Estimated points

161.8Total

Donar Groningen81.3

Spirou Charleroi80.6

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

52% 48%

Donar Groningen Spirou Charleroi

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Donar Groningen 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWLWW

Spirou Charleroi 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Donar Groningen 3–3 Spirou Charleroi (6 last)

Spirou Charleroi100-97Donar Groningen
Donar Groningen83-74Spirou Charleroi
Donar Groningen69-65Spirou Charleroi
Spirou Charleroi80-68Donar Groningen
Spirou Charleroi76-74Donar Groningen
Donar Groningen78-72Spirou Charleroi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Donar Groningen 1481 · Spirou Charleroi 1493

	Donar Groningen	Spirou Charleroi
Our model	61%	39%
Market	50%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 161.8 points · Bet365 line 160.5 · +1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points161.8Donar Groningen 81.3 · Spirou Charleroi 80.6

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Donar Groningen	Spirou Charleroi
Points F\|A (Last 10)	80.4 / 78	81.5 / 80.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	82.2 / 78.8	84.6 / 76.2
Est. result	81	81

Est. total161.8

Line O/U160.5

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.74

Line ⓘ

Over 160.51.83

Under 160.51.83

Diff.: 0.3 · Est. total: 160.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.91 ★
2	2.12 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
11:33 +12’	1.65	2.12
00:21 +24’	1.95▲	1.74▼
13:28 +17’	1.83▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
10:40 +6’	1.68	2.02
22:00 +46’	1.85▲	1.82▼
23:39 +6’	2.06▲	1.65▼
00:28 +17’	2.39▲	1.47▼
01:11 +35’	2.11▼	1.62▲
02:37 +10’	2.27▲	1.53▼
03:29 +17’	2.37▲	1.48▼
03:56 +50’	2.44▲	1.45▼
04:51 +55’	2.20▼	1.56▲
07:38 +7’	2.27▲	1.53▼
08:37 +8’	2.11▼	1.61▲
10:24 +22’	1.91▼	1.76▲
11:53 +53’	1.88▼	1.79▲
14:31 +15’	1.91▲	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Donar Groningen 3–0–3 Spirou Charleroi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 BNXT League	Spirou Charleroi	100-97	Donar Groningen
08/04/26 BNXT League	Donar Groningen	83-74	Spirou Charleroi
10/05/25 BNXT League	Donar Groningen	69-65	Spirou Charleroi
17/11/24 BNXT League	Spirou Charleroi	80-68	Donar Groningen
26/04/24 BNXT League	Spirou Charleroi	76-74	Donar Groningen
23/03/24 BNXT League	Donar Groningen	78-72	Spirou Charleroi

Standings · BNXT League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Antwerp Giants	2	2	0	213	169
2	Brussels Basketball	2	2	0	171	131
3	Okapi Aalst	2	2	0	189	166
4	Spirou Charleroi	3	2	1	253	192
5	Donar Groningen	3	2	1	229	244
6	Oostende	2	1	1	185	165
7	Limburg United	2	1	1	201	182
8	Den Bosch	2	1	1	138	120
9	Leuven Bears	2	1	1	147	146
10	Kangoeroes Basket	2	1	1	188	194
11	ZZ Leiden	2	1	1	137	148
12	Landstede Zwolle	2	1	1	140	157
13	Kortrijk Spurs	2	0	2	182	198
14	Rotterdam City	2	0	2	121	155
15	CB Liege	2	0	2	143	195
16	Mons-Hainaut	2	0	2	123	198

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Donar Groningen	Spirou Charleroi
Leuven Bears	81-78 W	65-69 L
Kortrijk Spurs	85-76 W	86-84 W
Landstede Zwolle	78-67 W	77-78 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Donar Groningen (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Donar Groningen

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/10	Leuven Bears BNXT League	81-78	W
02/10	Kortrijk Spurs BNXT League	85-76	W
09/05	Limburg United BNXT League	71-82	L
06/05	Rotterdam City BNXT League	90-76	W
03/05	Oostende BNXT League	84-82	W
28/04	Den Bosch BNXT League	67-81	L
25/04	Kangoeroes Basket BNXT League	99-63	W
22/04	LWD Basket BNXT League	88-89	L
19/04	Landstede Zwolle BNXT League	78-67	W
15/04	Landstede Zwolle BNXT League	61-86	L

Spirou Charleroi

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	Mons-Hainaut BNXT League	98-60	W
03/10	Leuven Bears BNXT League	65-69	L
09/05	Antwerp Giants BNXT League	82-95	L
06/05	Mons-Hainaut BNXT League	101-79	W
03/05	Landstede Zwolle BNXT League	77-78	L
28/04	Antwerp Giants BNXT League	65-99	L
23/04	Leuven Bears BNXT League	73-69	W
19/04	Kortrijk Spurs BNXT League	86-84	W
17/04	Kortrijk Spurs BNXT League	68-75	L
11/04	Donar Groningen BNXT League	100-97	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Donar Groningen vs Spirou Charleroi?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Donar Groningen 52% · Spirou Charleroi 48%).

How many points are expected in Donar Groningen vs Spirou Charleroi?

The model estimates 161.8 total points (Donar Groningen 81.3 · Spirou Charleroi 80.6).