Prediction: Mount Gambier Pioneers vs Keilor Thunder
Estimated 179.3 total points (Mount Gambier Pioneers 86.6 · Keilor Thunder 92.7).
On recent form, Mount Gambier Pioneers is 1-0-9 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Keilor Thunder 7-0-3 over its own. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Mount Gambier Pioneers won 4 and Keilor Thunder 1.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keilor Thunder (rating 1401 vs 1547).
- H2H favours Mount Gambier Pioneers: 4-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Mount Gambier Pioneers | Keilor Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 87 / 94.9 | 90.6 / 87.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 89.4 / 93.4 | 88.2 / 84.4 |
| Est. result | 87 | 93 |
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mount Gambier Pioneers 4–0–1 Keilor Thunder
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/25 Australia NBL1 South | Keilor Thunder | 76-100 | Mount Gambier Pioneers |
| 07/06/24 Australia NBL1 South | Keilor Thunder | 64-80 | Mount Gambier Pioneers |
| 26/04/24 Australia NBL1 South | Mount Gambier Pioneers | 83-96 | Keilor Thunder |
| 22/04/23 Australia NBL1 South | Mount Gambier Pioneers | 106-82 | Keilor Thunder |
| 15/05/22 Australia NBL1 South | Keilor Thunder | 88-96 | Mount Gambier Pioneers |
Standings · Australia NBL1 South
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Tigers | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1843 | 1611 | 0 |
| 2 | Eltham Wildcats | 19 | 15 | 4 | 1728 | 1505 | 0 |
| 3 | Nunawading Spectres | 20 | 15 | 5 | 2026 | 1804 | 0 |
| 4 | Frankston Blues | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1899 | 1800 | 0 |
| 5 | Knox Raiders | 19 | 13 | 6 | 1873 | 1741 | 0 |
| 6 | Keilor Thunder | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1865 | 1757 | 0 |
| 7 | Kilsyth Cobras | 18 | 11 | 7 | 1632 | 1603 | 0 |
| 8 | Dandenong Rangers | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1910 | 1849 | 0 |
| 9 | Casey Cavaliers | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1874 | 1823 | 0 |
| 10 | Sandringham Sabres | 19 | 10 | 9 | 1754 | 1681 | 0 |
| 11 | Ringwood Hawks | 19 | 8 | 11 | 1709 | 1829 | 0 |
| 12 | Hobart Chargers | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1729 | 1828 | 0 |
| 13 | Waverley Falcons | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1693 | 1733 | 0 |
| 14 | Bendigo Braves | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1606 | 1727 | 0 |
| 15 | Diamond Valley Eagles | 20 | 7 | 13 | 1806 | 1863 | 0 |
| 16 | Northern Force | 19 | 6 | 13 | 1736 | 1902 | 0 |
| 17 | Geelong United | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1671 | 1837 | 0 |
| 18 | Mount Gambier Pioneers | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1803 | 1936 | 0 |
| 19 | Ballarat Miners | 20 | 2 | 18 | 1756 | 2084 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mount Gambier Pioneers | Keilor Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Dandenong Rangers | 98-100 L | 94-79 W |
| Kilsyth Cobras | 85-90 L | 88-99 L |
| Ringwood Hawks | 95-97 L | 88-82 W |
| Casey Cavaliers | 85-109 L | 98-97 W |
| Eltham Wildcats | 77-95 L | 81-90 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 5 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Keilor Thunder (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mount Gambier Pioneers
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Bendigo Braves Australia NBL1 South |
88-70 | W |
| 03/07 | Knox Raiders Australia NBL1 South |
76-97 | L |
| 28/06 | Nunawading Spectres Australia NBL1 South |
100-110 | L |
| 27/06 | Dandenong Rangers Australia NBL1 South |
98-100 | L |
| 19/06 | Kilsyth Cobras Australia NBL1 South |
85-90 | L |
| 14/06 | Geelong United Australia NBL1 South |
75-77 | L |
| 12/06 | Northern Force Australia NBL1 South |
91-104 | L |
| 29/05 | Ringwood Hawks Australia NBL1 South |
95-97 | L |
| 23/05 | Casey Cavaliers Australia NBL1 South |
85-109 | L |
| 17/05 | Eltham Wildcats Australia NBL1 South |
77-95 | L |
Keilor Thunder
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Casey Cavaliers Australia NBL1 South |
98-97 | W |
| 27/06 | Ringwood Hawks Australia NBL1 South |
88-82 | W |
| 21/06 | Waverley Falcons Australia NBL1 South |
96-86 | W |
| 20/06 | Eltham Wildcats Australia NBL1 South |
81-90 | L |
| 14/06 | Casey Cavaliers Australia NBL1 South |
78-67 | W |
| 13/06 | Sandringham Sabres Australia NBL1 South |
87-78 | W |
| 05/06 | Ballarat Miners Australia NBL1 South |
116-98 | W |
| 30/05 | Melbourne Tigers Australia NBL1 South |
80-95 | L |
| 24/05 | Dandenong Rangers Australia NBL1 South |
94-79 | W |
| 16/05 | Kilsyth Cobras Australia NBL1 South |
88-99 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mount Gambier Pioneers vs Keilor Thunder?
Our model gives 58% to Keilor Thunder.
How many points are expected in Mount Gambier Pioneers vs Keilor Thunder?
The model estimates 179.3 total points (Mount Gambier Pioneers 86.6 · Keilor Thunder 92.7).