Basketball · Australia NBL1 North Women · 18/07, 09:00
Prediction: Brisbane Capitals (W) vs Southern District Spartans (W)
Prediction summary
Estimated points
159Total
Brisbane Capitals (W)73.1
Southern District Spartans (W)85.9
1X2
Brisbane Capitals (W)
Southern District Spartans (W)
Recent form · 10 last
Brisbane Capitals (W)
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Southern District Spartans (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brisbane Capitals (W)
0–6
Southern District Spartans (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane Capitals (W) 1393 · Southern District Spartans (W) 1511
| Brisbane Capitals (W) | Southern District Spartans (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
Estimated total (ours)
159 points · Bet365 line 160.5 · -1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points159Brisbane Capitals (W) 73.1 · Southern District Spartans (W) 85.9
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southern District Spartans (W) (rating 1393 vs 1511).
- Southern District Spartans (W) is a clear favourite (82% market).
- H2H favours Southern District Spartans (W): 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Brisbane Capitals (W) | Southern District Spartans (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 73 / 83.3 | 80.7 / 79.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 73.8 / 90 | 88.2 / 76.8 |
| Est. result | 73 | 86 |
Est. total159
Line O/U160.5
Diff.1.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Capitals (W) 0–0–6 Southern District Spartans (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia NBL1 North Women | Southern District Spartans (W) | 84-81 | Brisbane Capitals (W) |
| 18/04/26 Australia NBL1 North Women | Southern District Spartans (W) | 105-61 | Brisbane Capitals (W) |
| 31/05/25 Australia NBL1 North Women | Brisbane Capitals (W) | 84-91 | Southern District Spartans (W) |
| 10/05/25 Australia NBL1 North Women | Southern District Spartans (W) | 88-54 | Brisbane Capitals (W) |
| 05/07/24 Australia NBL1 North Women | Southern District Spartans (W) | 88-73 | Brisbane Capitals (W) |
| 08/06/24 Australia NBL1 North Women | Brisbane Capitals (W) | 66-85 | Southern District Spartans (W) |
Standings · Australia NBL1 North Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Thunder (W) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1305 | 1113 | 0 |
| 2 | Cairns Dolphins (W) | 15 | 12 | 3 | 1359 | 1154 | 0 |
| 3 | Southern District Spartans (W) | 15 | 10 | 5 | 1257 | 1133 | 0 |
| 4 | Townsville Heat (W) | 15 | 10 | 5 | 1266 | 1181 | 0 |
| 5 | Mackay Meteorettes (W) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 1263 | 1086 | 0 |
| 6 | Northside Wizards (W) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 1179 | 1100 | 0 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) | 15 | 7 | 8 | 1193 | 1195 | 0 |
| 8 | North Gold Coast Seahawks (W) | 15 | 7 | 8 | 1224 | 1260 | 0 |
| 9 | Rockhampton Cyclones (W) | 14 | 5 | 9 | 1103 | 1203 | 0 |
| 10 | Gold Coast Rollers (W) | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1057 | 1165 | 0 |
| 11 | South West Metro Pirates (W) | 15 | 3 | 12 | 996 | 1194 | 0 |
| 12 | Ipswich Force (W) | 15 | 3 | 12 | 1060 | 1266 | 0 |
| 13 | Brisbane Capitals (W) | 15 | 3 | 12 | 1098 | 1310 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Capitals (W) | Southern District Spartans (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Northside Wizards (W) | 60-88 L | 73-65 W |
| Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) | 68-81 L | 96-74 W |
| Gold Coast Rollers (W) | 69-95 L | 90-68 W |
| Cairns Dolphins (W) | 82-90 L | 79-86 L |
| Townsville Heat (W) | 71-93 L | 69-104 L |
| Ipswich Force (W) | 62-82 L | 105-65 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 6 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Southern District Spartans (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Capitals (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Northside Wizards (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
60-88 | L |
| 03/07 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
68-81 | L |
| 27/06 | Gold Coast Rollers (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
69-95 | L |
| 20/06 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
90-96 | L |
| 13/06 | Cairns Dolphins (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
82-90 | L |
| 06/06 | Townsville Heat (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
71-93 | L |
| 30/05 | South West Metro Pirates (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
82-63 | W |
| 22/05 | Northside Wizards (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
78-87 | L |
| 16/05 | Ipswich Force (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
62-82 | L |
| 10/05 | Rockhampton Cyclones (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
68-58 | W |
Southern District Spartans (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Cairns Dolphins (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
79-86 | L |
| 27/06 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
96-74 | W |
| 20/06 | Ipswich Force (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
105-65 | W |
| 13/06 | Logan Thunder (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
71-91 | L |
| 12/06 | Gold Coast Rollers (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
90-68 | W |
| 07/06 | Townsville Heat (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
69-104 | L |
| 31/05 | Sunshine Coast Phoenix (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
65-85 | L |
| 23/05 | Northside Wizards (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
73-65 | W |
| 16/05 | North Gold Coast Seahawks (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
77-70 | W |
| 09/05 | Northside Wizards (W) Australia NBL1 North Women |
82-86 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Capitals (W) vs Southern District Spartans (W)?
Our model gives 82% to Southern District Spartans (W).
How many points are expected in Brisbane Capitals (W) vs Southern District Spartans (W)?
The model estimates 159 total points (Brisbane Capitals (W) 73.1 · Southern District Spartans (W) 85.9).