Basketball · Australia NBL1 South Women · 10/07, 10:30
Prediction: Casey Cavaliers (W) vs Dandenong Rangers (W)
Estimated 164.2 total points (Casey Cavaliers (W) 83.6 · Dandenong Rangers (W) 80.6).
Recent form leaves Casey Cavaliers (W) with 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Dandenong Rangers (W) has piled up 6-0-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Casey Cavaliers (W) won 2 and Dandenong Rangers (W) 4.
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Casey Cavaliers (W) 1556 · Dandenong Rangers (W) 1503
| Casey Cavaliers (W) | Dandenong Rangers (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
164.2 points · Bet365 line 162.5 · +1.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points164.2Casey Cavaliers (W) 83.6 · Dandenong Rangers (W) 80.6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Casey Cavaliers (W) (rating 1556 vs 1503).
- Casey Cavaliers (W) is a clear favourite (71% market).
- H2H favours Dandenong Rangers (W): 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Casey Cavaliers (W) | Dandenong Rangers (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 85.5 / 78.8 | 82.6 / 81.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 88.2 / 79 | 85.8 / 76.8 |
| Est. result | 84 | 81 |
Est. total164.2
Line O/U162.5
Diff.1.7
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casey Cavaliers (W) 2–0–4 Dandenong Rangers (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia NBL1 South Women | Dandenong Rangers (W) | 75-87 | Casey Cavaliers (W) |
| 05/07/25 Australia NBL1 South Women | Dandenong Rangers (W) | 75-80 | Casey Cavaliers (W) |
| 29/03/25 Australia NBL1 South Women | Casey Cavaliers (W) | 56-98 | Dandenong Rangers (W) |
| 06/04/24 Australia NBL1 South Women | Casey Cavaliers (W) | 64-80 | Dandenong Rangers (W) |
| 15/07/23 Australia NBL1 South Women | Casey Cavaliers (W) | 76-87 | Dandenong Rangers (W) |
| 01/04/23 Australia NBL1 South Women | Dandenong Rangers (W) | 77-67 | Casey Cavaliers (W) |
Standings · Australia NBL1 South Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knox Raiders (W) | 19 | 15 | 4 | 1569 | 1324 | 0 |
| 2 | Eltham Wildcats (W) | 19 | 15 | 4 | 1642 | 1455 | 0 |
| 3 | Sandringham Sabres (W) | 19 | 14 | 5 | 1523 | 1327 | 0 |
| 4 | Casey Cavaliers (W) | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1733 | 1595 | 0 |
| 5 | Diamond Valley Eagles (W) | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1776 | 1587 | 0 |
| 6 | Keilor Thunder (W) | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1530 | 1425 | 0 |
| 7 | Waverley Falcons (W) | 19 | 12 | 7 | 1464 | 1356 | 0 |
| 8 | Melbourne Tigers (W) | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1554 | 1538 | 0 |
| 9 | Mount Gambier Pioneers (W) | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1687 | 1612 | 0 |
| 10 | Ballarat Miners (W) | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1699 | 1616 | 0 |
| 11 | Dandenong Rangers (W) | 20 | 9 | 11 | 1580 | 1589 | 0 |
| 12 | Northern Force (W) | 19 | 8 | 11 | 1495 | 1570 | 0 |
| 13 | Nunawading Spectres (W) | 20 | 8 | 12 | 1534 | 1621 | 0 |
| 14 | Kilsyth Cobras (W) | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1367 | 1490 | 0 |
| 15 | Hobart Chargers (W) | 19 | 6 | 13 | 1472 | 1635 | 0 |
| 16 | Bendigo Braves (W) | 19 | 5 | 14 | 1487 | 1698 | 0 |
| 17 | Geelong United (W) | 20 | 5 | 15 | 1454 | 1704 | 0 |
| 18 | Frankston Blues (W) | 20 | 5 | 15 | 1379 | 1511 | 0 |
| 19 | Ringwood Hawks (W) | 19 | 3 | 16 | 1407 | 1699 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Casey Cavaliers (W) | Dandenong Rangers (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Keilor Thunder (W) | 59-49 W | 95-90 W |
| Geelong United (W) | 98-78 W | 82-85 L |
| Diamond Valley Eagles (W) | 101-96 W | 99-83 W |
| Ballarat Miners (W) | 78-95 L | 89-82 W |
| Melbourne Tigers (W) | 83-70 W | 70-80 L |
| Mount Gambier Pioneers (W) | 84-81 W | 90-76 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casey Cavaliers (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Keilor Thunder (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
59-49 | W |
| 04/07 | Kilsyth Cobras (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
92-105 | L |
| 27/06 | Bendigo Braves (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
91-67 | W |
| 21/06 | Geelong United (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
98-78 | W |
| 20/06 | Diamond Valley Eagles (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
101-96 | W |
| 14/06 | Keilor Thunder (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
73-84 | L |
| 13/06 | Ballarat Miners (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
78-95 | L |
| 05/06 | Melbourne Tigers (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
83-70 | W |
| 23/05 | Mount Gambier Pioneers (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
84-81 | W |
| 17/05 | Bendigo Braves (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
96-63 | W |
Dandenong Rangers (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Ballarat Miners (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
89-82 | W |
| 28/06 | Melbourne Tigers (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
70-80 | L |
| 27/06 | Mount Gambier Pioneers (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
90-76 | W |
| 20/06 | Frankston Blues (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
81-63 | W |
| 13/06 | Diamond Valley Eagles (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
99-83 | W |
| 31/05 | Geelong United (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
82-85 | L |
| 30/05 | Nunawading Spectres (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
64-63 | W |
| 24/05 | Keilor Thunder (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
95-90 | W |
| 23/05 | Knox Raiders (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
73-91 | L |
| 16/05 | Northern Force (W) Australia NBL1 South Women |
83-98 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casey Cavaliers (W) vs Dandenong Rangers (W)?
Our model gives 71% to Casey Cavaliers (W).
How many points are expected in Casey Cavaliers (W) vs Dandenong Rangers (W)?
The model estimates 164.2 total points (Casey Cavaliers (W) 83.6 · Dandenong Rangers (W) 80.6).