Formula 1

Formula 1 Elo: the driver, without the car

Our own rating, separating what the driver brings from what the machine brings.

Every race is broken down into one-on-one duels. The gap to the team-mate — the only rival with exactly the same car — is credited entirely to the driver. A mechanical retirement does not cost the driver: it costs the team.

Calendar Driver Elo

1725best driver today · Lando Norris

1,145races used for training

83.04%accuracy predicting the finishing order

+1.39points over predicting by the grid

Active drivers

Current rating, with the car discounted

#	Driver	Team	Races	Elo
1	Lando Norris	McLaren	150	1725
2	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	73	1714
3	Max Verstappen	Red Bull Racing	213	1704
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	158	1674
5	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	357	1642
6	George Russell	Mercedes	145	1606
7	Carlos Sainz Jr.	Atlassian Williams	201	1600
8	Oliver Bearman	Haas	33	1573
9	Alexander Albon	Atlassian Williams	115	1567
10	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	31	1551
11	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	216	1542
12	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin Aramco	356	1536
13	Esteban Ocon	Haas	166	1519
14	Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	10	1515
15	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac	258	1513

How they got here

Elo at the end of each season

Team-mate duel

2026 · Races where both finished. Same car, so the gap belongs to the driver

Driver	Team	Duel	%	Average gap
Max Verstappen	Red Bull Racing	6–1	86%	+0.6 places
Oliver Bearman	Haas	7–2	78%	+2 places
Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	7–2	78%	+0.9 places
Sergio Pérez	Cadillac	3–1	75%	+1 places
Pierre Gasly	Alpine	7–3	70%	+3.2 places
Alexander Albon	Atlassian Williams	4–2	67%	+1.2 places
Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	5–4	56%	-0.9 places
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	5–5	50%	-1.3 places
Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	5–5	50%	+1.3 places
Oscar Piastri	McLaren	3–3	50%	-0.3 places
Lando Norris	McLaren	3–3	50%	+0.3 places
Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	3–3	50%	-0.5 places

Best of all time

Elo at their peak · minimum 20 races

#	Driver	Year	Races	Elo
1	Michael Schumacher	2002	239	1803
2	Jim Clark	1967	48	1784
3	Niki Lauda	1978	89	1782
4	Nelson Piquet	1983	122	1774
5	Ayrton Senna	1988	108	1768
6	Kimi Räikkönen	2007	282	1766
7	Lewis Hamilton	2016	357	1766
8	Sebastian Vettel	2018	262	1764
9	Emerson Fittipaldi	1973	95	1763
10	Alain Prost	1990	143	1760
11	Lando Norris	2025	150	1746
12	Oscar Piastri	2025	73	1746
13	Max Verstappen	2023	213	1743
14	Mika Häkkinen	2000	102	1741
15	Fernando Alonso	2007	356	1738

The car

Team rating, separate from the driver

#	Team	Elo
1	Mercedes	1602
2	Red Bull Racing	1565
3	Ferrari	1543
4	McLaren	1503
5	Racing Bulls	1492
6	Audi	1474
7	Atlassian Williams	1440
8	Cadillac	1421
9	Alpine	1403
10	Kick Sauber	1399
11	Aston Martin Aramco	1381
12	Haas	1342

How well it does

339 races · 49,031 duels

Each race is predicted using only what happened before it. The question is simple: of two drivers, who finishes ahead? The benchmark is the starting grid, which already sums up the car and the weekend's form.

Starting grid

81.64%

Elo alone

77.3%

Elo + grid

83.04%

Improvement of +1.39 points over the grid. Resampling by race, the 95% confidence interval runs from +1.07 to +1.71 points. Fitting the model only on 2010-2018 and measuring it on 2019-2026 — data it never saw — the gain is +1.5 points. Predicting the finishing order better does not mean beating the bookmakers: this is a sporting rating, not a betting system.

Results and standings extracted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). BetsTalent is not associated with or endorsed by Formula One World Championship Limited.