Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach · 06/11, 15:30
Prediction: Mattias Southcombe vs Karl Kazuma Lee
Team pages: Mattias Southcombe · Karl Kazuma Lee
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattias Southcombe
Karl Kazuma Lee
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mattias Southcombe
2-8 (W-L)
Karl Kazuma Lee
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattias Southcombe 1407 · Karl Kazuma Lee 1591
| Mattias Southcombe | Karl Kazuma Lee | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 74% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karl Kazuma Lee (rating 1407 vs 1591).
- Karl Kazuma Lee is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Mattias Southcombe makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| Mattias Southcombe | Karl Kazuma Lee | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.1-11.5 | 12.3-10.5 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 5 |
| Double faults | 6.9 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattias Southcombe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Max Freedman UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/11 | Roman Sancilio UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 09/09 | Jaesung Choe M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Chen-Yu Lu M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 25/08 | Suk Ann M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Kyle Overmyer M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-7 | L |
| 27/07 | Daniel Borisov M15 Dublin |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Sean O Nuallain M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/04 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Alexander Gschiel M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-11 | W |
Karl Kazuma Lee
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Max Freedman UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/10 | Adam Chodur UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/10 | Theodore Dean UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 23/10 | Corey Craig UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/10 | Kosuke Nakanishi UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 20/10 | Pol Masafret Hernandez UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/10 | Siddharth Bharadwaj UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/10 | Zach Stephens UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/10 | Theodore Dean UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Nile Ung UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattias Southcombe vs Karl Kazuma Lee?
Our model gives 82% to Karl Kazuma Lee, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.