Tennis · Challenger Sioux Falls · 31/10, 00:30
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Darwin Blanch
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Darwin Blanch
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Darwin Blanch
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
7-3 (W-L)
Darwin Blanch
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Liam Draxl
1–0
Darwin Blanch
(1 last)
- 21 Oct2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1561 · Darwin Blanch 1601
| Liam Draxl | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Blanch (rating 1561 vs 1601).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 56.2% break avg.
- Darwin Blanch dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 44.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Liam Draxl 1–0 Darwin Blanch (1).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-12.1 | 11.8-9.6 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 78.2% |
| Break % | 56.2% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Liam Draxl 1 – 0 Darwin Blanch (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liam Draxl 1–0 Darwin Blanch
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/25 Challenger Sioux Falls | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Tomas Machac Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/10 | Yutong Du Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
Darwin Blanch
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 28/10 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/10 | Jenson Brooksby Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Sander Jong Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/10 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 29/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Darwin Blanch?
Our model gives 57% to Darwin Blanch, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.