Tennis · WTA Courmayeur · 28/10, 16:30
Prediction: Gabriela Knutson vs Alina Charaeva
Team pages: Gabriela Knutson · Alina Charaeva
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriela Knutson
Alina Charaeva
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriela Knutson
7-3 (W-L)
Alina Charaeva
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gabriela Knutson
1–0
Alina Charaeva
(1 last)
- 09 Dec2-1 15-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriela Knutson 1599 · Alina Charaeva 1507
| Gabriela Knutson | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriela Knutson (rating 1599 vs 1507).
- Gabriela Knutson is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Gabriela Knutson 1–0 Alina Charaeva (1).
- Note: Gabriela Knutson makes many double faults (5.4/match).
- Note: Alina Charaeva makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Gabriela Knutson | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.3 | 12.4-12.7 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 4 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
H2H · Gabriela Knutson 1 – 0 Alina Charaeva (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gabriela Knutson 1–0 Alina Charaeva
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/25 WTA Limoges | 2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriela Knutson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Rositsa Dencheva WTA Courmayeur · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/10 | Susan Bandecchi WTA Rovereto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 12/10 | Emiliana Arango WTA Rovereto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Ayana Akli WTA Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Katherine Sebov WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Lisa Pigato WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Mia Pohankova WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 18/09 | Malaika Rapolu WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 17/09 | Anouk Koevermans WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alina Charaeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Enola Chiesa WTA Courmayeur · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/10 | Anna Siskova W100 Wrexham |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 13/10 | Martyna Kubka WTA Rovereto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/10 | Sonay Kartal WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/10 | Elena Rybakina WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Anna Bondar WTA Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 22/09 | Sofia Kenin WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Anna Blinkova WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriela Knutson vs Alina Charaeva?
Our model gives 52% to Gabriela Knutson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.