Tennis · Challenger Sioux Falls · 27/10, 20:30
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Tomasz Berkieta
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Tomasz Berkieta
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Tomasz Berkieta
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
7-3 (W-L)
Tomasz Berkieta
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1563 · Tomasz Berkieta 1516
| Liam Draxl | Tomasz Berkieta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1563 vs 1516).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 57.9% break avg.
- Note: Tomasz Berkieta makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Tomasz Berkieta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11.7 | 11-10.7 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 57.9% | 24.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Tomas Machac Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/10 | Yutong Du Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Tomasz Berkieta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 25/10 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/10 | Nicolas Arseneault M15 Ithaca |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 14/10 | Roger Pascual Ferra M25 Austin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Facundo Mena Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Dominik Kellovsky Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Patrick Zahraj M25 Metzingen |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Iannis Miletich M25 Metzingen |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Tomasz Berkieta?
Our model gives 69% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.