Tennis · M25 Sheffield · 27/10, 11:00
Prediction: Matt Ponchet vs Stijn Pel
Team pages: Matt Ponchet · Stijn Pel
Prediction summary
Winner
Matt Ponchet
Stijn Pel
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Matt Ponchet
3-7 (W-L)
Stijn Pel
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matt Ponchet 1436 · Stijn Pel 1506
| Matt Ponchet | Stijn Pel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stijn Pel (rating 1436 vs 1506).
Statistics
| Matt Ponchet | Stijn Pel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.5 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-11.7 | 10.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 28.4% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matt Ponchet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Arthur Nagel M25 Sarreguemines |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Theo Herrmann M25 Sarreguemines |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Mickael Kaouk M25 Plaisir |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Marcus Walters Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 31/07 | Conor Gannon M15 Dublin |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Ammar Elamin M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Melvin Kumar M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Marcel Zielinski Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Stijn Pel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Jake Evans M25 Sheffield |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/10 | Romain Andres M25 Sheffield |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/08 | Jose David Segovia Perez M15 Malmo |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/03 | Mukund Sasikumar M25 Mumbai · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 16/03 | James Van Herzeele M25 Mumbai · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/03 | Shanker Heisnam M25 Kolkata · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/03 | Parth Aggarwal M25 Kolkata · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/03 | Anurag Agarwal M25 Kolkata · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/02 | Aleksandr Braynin M25 Pszczyna · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/02 | Juliusz Bienkiewicz M25 Pszczyna · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matt Ponchet vs Stijn Pel?
Our model gives 61% to Matt Ponchet, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.