Tennis · Challenger Sioux Falls · 27/10, 17:00
Prediction: Alexis Galarneau vs Mees Rottgering
Team pages: Alexis Galarneau · Mees Rottgering
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexis Galarneau
Mees Rottgering
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Alexis Galarneau
5-5 (W-L)
Mees Rottgering
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexis Galarneau
0–1
Mees Rottgering
(1 last)
- 29 Sept1-2 12-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexis Galarneau 1472 · Mees Rottgering 1533
| Alexis Galarneau | Mees Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mees Rottgering (rating 1472 vs 1533).
- Head-to-head: Alexis Galarneau 0–1 Mees Rottgering (1).
- Note: Mees Rottgering makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Alexis Galarneau | Mees Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-11.9 | 10.7-9.9 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 31.1% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Alexis Galarneau 0 – 1 Mees Rottgering (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexis Galarneau 0–1 Mees Rottgering
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/25 Challenger Mouilleron le Captif | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexis Galarneau
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Elias Ymer ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Keegan Smith US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Mees Rottgering
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Cosme Rolland De Ravel Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/10 | Andy Andrade Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Braden Shick Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Edward Winter Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Jan Choinski ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexis Galarneau vs Mees Rottgering?
Our model gives 63% to Mees Rottgering, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.