Tennis · Challenger Sioux Falls · 25/10, 17:30
Prediction: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteele
Team pages: Daniil Ostapenkov · Quinn Vandecasteele
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Ostapenkov
Quinn Vandecasteele
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Ostapenkov
5-5 (W-L)
Quinn Vandecasteele
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Ostapenkov
2–0
Quinn Vandecasteele
(2 last)
- 28 Sept2-0 13-8W
- 20 Sept2-1 17-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Ostapenkov 1497 · Quinn Vandecasteele 1467
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Daniil Ostapenkov 2–0 Quinn Vandecasteele (2).
- Note: Daniil Ostapenkov makes many double faults (4/match).
- Note: Quinn Vandecasteele makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-11.6 | 11-12.5 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 4 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 41.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Daniil Ostapenkov 2 – 0 Quinn Vandecasteele (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Ostapenkov 2–0 Quinn Vandecasteele
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/26 Challenger Columbus | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/09/26 Challenger San Diego | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Ostapenkov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 01/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Raphael Perot Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 28/09 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Ilija Palavestra Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Timo Legout Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 14/09 | Timo Legout Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Gus Grumet Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Florent Bax Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Quinn Vandecasteele
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Michael Antonius Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/10 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Austin |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Aryan Shah M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Preston Stearns Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 14/09 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Noah Zamora Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteele?
Our model gives 50% to Daniil Ostapenkov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.