Tennis · Challenger Sioux Falls · 25/10, 16:00
Prediction: Karl Poling vs Maxwell Exsted
Team pages: Karl Poling · Maxwell Exsted
Prediction summary
Winner
Karl Poling
Maxwell Exsted
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Karl Poling
5-5 (W-L)
Maxwell Exsted
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karl Poling 1423 · Maxwell Exsted 1496
| Karl Poling | Maxwell Exsted | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maxwell Exsted (rating 1423 vs 1496).
- Maxwell Exsted is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Karl Poling | Maxwell Exsted | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 13% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.8 | 11.2-10.1 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 59.3% |
| Break % | 26.3% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Iker Urribarrens M25 Austin |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Aidan Mchugh M25 Austin |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 21/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Maxwell Exsted
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Jack Anthrop M15 Lexington |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 13/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Santiago De La Fuente M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Benjamin Torrealba M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Santiago Giamichelle M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/08 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/08 | Nicolas Villalon M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 11/08 | Tomas Martinez M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Maximus Dussault M25 Southaven |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karl Poling vs Maxwell Exsted?
Our model gives 50% to Karl Poling, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.