Tennis · W75 Saguenay · 22/10, 16:00
Prediction: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov
Team pages: Ariana Arseneault · Katherine Sebov
Prediction summary
Winner
Ariana Arseneault
Katherine Sebov
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ariana Arseneault
7-3 (W-L)
Katherine Sebov
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Arseneault 1511 · Katherine Sebov 1447
| Ariana Arseneault | Katherine Sebov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana Arseneault (rating 1511 vs 1447).
- Ariana Arseneault is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ariana Arseneault | Katherine Sebov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-8.5 | 9.2-11 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 54.2% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 49.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Raphaelle Lacasse W75 Saguenay |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 17/10 | Mimi Xu W50 Quebec City |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Ayana Akli W50 Quebec City |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Madison Sieg W50 Quebec City |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Justina Mikulskyte W50 Quebec City |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/09 | Angelina Voloshchuk WTA Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Catarina Gomes WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 15/09 | Kylie Collins WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 14/09 | Angelina Voloshchuk WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Georgina Garcia-Perez WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Katherine Sebov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Margaux Rouvroy W75 Saguenay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Francoise Abanda W50 Quebec City |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Margaux Rouvroy W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 29/09 | Alize Lim W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Julia Avdeeva US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Aoi Ito WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov?
Our model gives 53% to Ariana Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.