Prediction: Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero
Team pages: Mariella Thamm · Maria Martinez Vaquero
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariella Thamm
Maria Martinez Vaquero
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mariella Thamm
6-4 (W-L)
Maria Martinez Vaquero
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariella Thamm 1557 · Maria Martinez Vaquero 1451
| Mariella Thamm | Maria Martinez Vaquero | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mariella Thamm (rating 1557 vs 1451).
- Mariella Thamm is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Maria Martinez Vaquero makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Mariella Thamm | Maria Martinez Vaquero | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-7.6 | 9.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 6.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 56.6% |
| Break % | 59% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariella Thamm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Emma Lene W35 Villeneuve D'Ascq |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Stephanie Judith Visscher W35 Villeneuve D'Ascq |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Clara Vlasselaer W35 Villeneuve D'Ascq |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/10 | Manon Leonard W35 Villeneuve D'Ascq |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 05/10 | Eunchae Kim W35 Villeneuve D'Ascq |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 04/10 | Savine Erler W35 Villeneuve D'Ascq |
2-0 | 7-3 | W |
| 20/06 | Renata Zarazua WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/04 | Samira De Stefano W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/04 | Jessica Bertoldo W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/04 | Viola Turini W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Maria Martinez Vaquero
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Mathilde Lollia WTA Lisbon · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Britt Du Pree W35 Lagos |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 08/10 | Milana Ivantsiv W35 Lagos |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Laia Petretic W35 Lagos |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Naiktha Bains W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 20/09 | Sahaja Yamalapalli WTA Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Susan Bandecchi WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Anastasia Gasanova W50 Evora |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Zoziya Kardava W50 Leiria |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Isabella Marton W50 Leiria |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariella Thamm vs Maria Martinez Vaquero?
Our model gives 72% to Mariella Thamm, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.