Tennis · Challenger Florence · 20/10, 10:00
Prediction: Miguel Damas vs Samuele Pieri
Team pages: Miguel Damas · Samuele Pieri
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Damas
Samuele Pieri
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Damas
6-4 (W-L)
Samuele Pieri
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Miguel Damas
1–0
Samuele Pieri
(1 last)
- 27 Feb2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Damas 1497 · Samuele Pieri 1544
| Miguel Damas | Samuele Pieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Samuele Pieri (rating 1497 vs 1544).
- Head-to-head: Miguel Damas 1–0 Samuele Pieri (1).
- Note: Miguel Damas makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Miguel Damas | Samuele Pieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10.8 | 10.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 63.1% | 62.8% |
| Break % | 54% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Miguel Damas 1 – 0 Samuele Pieri (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Miguel Damas 1–0 Samuele Pieri
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/25 M15 Villena | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Damas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Johan Nikles Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Alexander Ritschard M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Xavi Palomar M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/09 | Leonid Sheyngezikht M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/09 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 26/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Samuele Pieri
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Martin Krumich Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/10 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrej Martin Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Damas vs Samuele Pieri?
Our model gives 53% to Samuele Pieri, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.