Tennis · W50 Quebec City · 14/10, 17:00
Prediction: Ariana Arseneault vs Justina Mikulskyte
Team pages: Ariana Arseneault · Justina Mikulskyte
Prediction summary
Winner
Ariana Arseneault
Justina Mikulskyte
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ariana Arseneault
5-5 (W-L)
Justina Mikulskyte
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ariana Arseneault
0–2
Justina Mikulskyte
(2 last)
- 12 Dec0-2 2-12L
- 24 Sept1-2 13-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Arseneault 1469 · Justina Mikulskyte 1479
| Ariana Arseneault | Justina Mikulskyte | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Ariana Arseneault 0–2 Justina Mikulskyte (2).
- Note: Justina Mikulskyte makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Ariana Arseneault | Justina Mikulskyte | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9-10.9 | 9.1-11 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 58.1% | 57.4% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
H2H · Ariana Arseneault 0 – 2 Justina Mikulskyte (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana Arseneault 0–2 Justina Mikulskyte
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/25 W15 Monastir | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/09/18 ITF Women Hilton Head | 1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Arseneault
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Angelina Voloshchuk WTA Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Catarina Gomes WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 15/09 | Kylie Collins WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 14/09 | Angelina Voloshchuk WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Georgina Garcia-Perez WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W50 Evora |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Gasanova W50 Leiria |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 24/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Alexandra Osborne WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Justina Mikulskyte
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi W35 Lagos |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Paula Badosa WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Chloe Paquet WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Antonia Rivera WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Clara Burel W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Nahia Berecoechea W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 29/08 | Denisa Zoldakova W75 Bytom |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Ariana Geerlings W75 Bytom |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/08 | Federica Urgesi W75 Bytom |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Gina Feistel W75 Bytom |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Arseneault vs Justina Mikulskyte?
Our model gives 53% to Ariana Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.