Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 09/10, 10:00
Prediction: Matilde Paoletti vs Alessandra Mazzola
Team pages: Matilde Paoletti · Alessandra Mazzola
Prediction summary
Winner
Matilde Paoletti
Alessandra Mazzola
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Matilde Paoletti
5-5 (W-L)
Alessandra Mazzola
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matilde Paoletti
1–0
Alessandra Mazzola
(1 last)
- 12 Oct2-1 17-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matilde Paoletti 1559 · Alessandra Mazzola 1513
| Matilde Paoletti | Alessandra Mazzola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Paoletti (rating 1559 vs 1513).
- Head-to-head: Matilde Paoletti 1–0 Alessandra Mazzola (1).
Statistics
| Matilde Paoletti | Alessandra Mazzola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.5 | 10.3-11.7 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 57.4% | 51% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 53.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Matilde Paoletti 1 – 0 Alessandra Mazzola (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matilde Paoletti 1–0 Alessandra Mazzola
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/24 W35 Santa Margherita | 2-1 | 17-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matilde Paoletti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Eva Bennemann W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Francesca Gandolfi W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/09 | Maria Toma W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diletta Cherubini W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 08/09 | Sophie Greiner W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Gabriela Ce W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Sophie Triquart W35 Trieste |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Alessandra Mazzola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Beatrise Zeltina W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/10 | Sofia Shapatava W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-9 | W |
| 25/09 | Loes Ebeling Koning W50 Plovdiv |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Dunja Maric W50 Plovdiv |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Rositsa Dencheva W50 Plovdiv |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/09 | Beatrise Zeltina W50 Pazardzhik |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Federica Trevisan W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/08 | Teodora Miron W35 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Iva Ivanova W35 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/07 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matilde Paoletti vs Alessandra Mazzola?
Our model gives 61% to Matilde Paoletti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.