Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 08/10, 11:00
Prediction: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Carla Giambelli
Team pages: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur · Carla Giambelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
Carla Giambelli
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
7-3 (W-L)
Carla Giambelli
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
1–0
Carla Giambelli
(1 last)
- 23 Sept2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1563 · Carla Giambelli 1506
| Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | Carla Giambelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur (rating 1563 vs 1506).
- Head-to-head: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1–0 Carla Giambelli (1).
Statistics
| Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | Carla Giambelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.1 | 10-9.5 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 56.3% | 57.9% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 59.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1 – 0 Carla Giambelli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1–0 Carla Giambelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/26 W35 Santa Margherita | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Nellie Taraba Wallberg W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/09 | Marie Mettraux W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Carla Giambelli W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Clara Burel WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia WTA Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 16/09 | Francesca Curmi WTA Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 15/09 | Charo Esquiva Banuls WTA Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/09 | Dalila Spiteri WTA Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Neus Torner Sensano WTA Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/09 | Ariana Geerlings W35 Reus · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Carla Giambelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Agnese Gentili W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Eva Marie Voracek W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Charlotte Pikkaart W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Carolina Gasparini W15 Fiano Romano |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Elza Tomase W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Alessia Antici W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Venla Ahti W15 Hameenlinna |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Manon Favier W15 Hameenlinna |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Yufei Ren WTA Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Carla Giambelli?
Our model gives 75% to Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.