Tennis · M15 Heraklion · 08/10, 09:00
Prediction: Finn Murgett vs Mathieu Scaglia
Team pages: Finn Murgett · Mathieu Scaglia
Prediction summary
Winner
Finn Murgett
Mathieu Scaglia
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Finn Murgett
8-2 (W-L)
Mathieu Scaglia
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Finn Murgett 1565 · Mathieu Scaglia 1519
| Finn Murgett | Mathieu Scaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Finn Murgett (rating 1565 vs 1519).
- Note: Mathieu Scaglia makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Finn Murgett | Mathieu Scaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-8.9 | 12.9-11.4 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 51.7% | 62% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Finn Murgett
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Michael Agwi M25 Setubal |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Setubal |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/09 | Diogo Marques M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/09 | Miguel Semedo M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Gian Luca Tanner M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/09 | Valentin Vanta M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Goncalo Marques M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Ryan Colby M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Mathieu Scaglia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Henri Haupt M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Lucca Liu M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Robin Bertrand Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Amit Vales Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/08 | Pierre Delage M15 Cap d'Agde |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 27/08 | Jaume Casas Blasi M15 Cap d'Agde |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/08 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Cap d'Agde |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 20/08 | Abdulhamid Mubarak M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Finn Murgett vs Mathieu Scaglia?
Our model gives 66% to Finn Murgett, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.