Tennis · M15 Pontevedra · 06/10, 12:00
Prediction: Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas vs Mario Arce Fernandez
Team pages: Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas · Mario Arce Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas
Mario Arce Fernandez
Estimated games
19.9
Recent form · 10 last
Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas
2-8 (W-L)
Mario Arce Fernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas
1–0
Mario Arce Fernandez
(1 last)
- 16 Jun2-1 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas 1412 · Mario Arce Fernandez 1501
| Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mario Arce Fernandez (rating 1412 vs 1501).
- Mario Arce Fernandez is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas 1–0 Mario Arce Fernandez (1).
- Note: Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.7 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 6.9-11.4 | 9.5-9.6 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 49.6% | 67.7% |
| Break % | 35.4% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
H2H · Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas 1 – 0 Mario Arce Fernandez (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas 1–0 Mario Arce Fernandez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/25 M15 Mungia-Laukariz | 2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Pontevedra |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Sander Jong M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Enrique Carrascosa Diaz M15 Madrid |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M25 Oviedo |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M25 Santander |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Mikel Martinez M25 Santander |
0-2 | 4-9 | L |
| 24/03 | Hugo Ruiz Rodriguez M25 Tarragona · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/02 | Miguel Semedo UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/02 | Benjamin Gusic Wan UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/02 | Ondrej Hujo UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Mario Arce Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Daniel Batista M15 Pontevedra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Carles Cordoba M15 Melilla |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Leonardo Borrelli M15 Melilla |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Sander Jong M25 Gijon |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Bernardo Munk Mesa M25 Gijon |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Madrid |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 27/08 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Boris Butulija M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Ognjen Jagrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Dmitry Bessonov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas vs Mario Arce Fernandez?
Our model gives 68% to Mario Arce Fernandez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.